铜行业周报：10月国内电解铜产量环比下降0.9%、同比增长0.2%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5][6]. Core Insights - In October 2024, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.9% month-on-month but increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with a total production of 996,000 tons from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [3][42]. - The report highlights a tightening supply of copper ore and scrap copper, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of electrolytic copper production, which is expected to support copper prices in Q4 2024 [1][4]. - The cable manufacturing sector's operating rate has rebounded, indicating a potential increase in demand for copper, which is crucial as cables account for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - As of November 8, 2024, SHFE copper price was 77,100 CNY/ton, up 0.8% from the previous week, while LME copper price was 9,433 USD/ton, down 1.1% [1][17]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to positively influence copper prices due to anticipated stimulus policies in China [1][24]. 2. Supply Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic copper production in October was 996,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [3][42]. - The report indicates that domestic scrap copper production increased by 5% month-on-month but decreased by 11% year-on-year, with the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper widening [2][36]. 3. Demand Insights - The operating rate of cable manufacturers increased by 6.3 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 87.3% as of November 7, 2024 [3][46]. - The report highlights that the production of household air conditioners is expected to increase significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 42% and 35% for November and December, respectively [3][46]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that tightening supply and improving demand in Q4 2024 will lead to further increases in copper prices, supporting the investment outlook for the sector [4][6].