宏观研究报告：市场交易的还是政策预期

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Ministry of Finance has approved an additional 6 trillion yuan in special debt limits for hidden debt replacement, to be implemented over three years, with an annual quota of 2 trillion yuan, representing about 5% of total liabilities[5]. - Local government broad liabilities have increased by 8.3% year-on-year, continuing a decline of 6 percentage points from last year[5]. - Infrastructure investment growth in September 2024 was 9.26%, significantly higher than the 8.24% for the entire year of 2023, indicating proactive fiscal measures despite debt reduction efforts[5]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Market Trends - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.3%, presenting an ideal entry point for investment, as market expectations of inflation rise with potential policy changes under Trump 2.0[7]. - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, marking the second rate cut since September 2024, while the pace of balance sheet reduction is accelerating[8]. - If the U.S. accelerates monetary easing, a weaker dollar could lead to a rebound in PPI, benefiting risk assets in China, although industrial capacity utilization remains low at 75.1%[8]. Group 3: Real Estate and Inflation Dynamics - The ability to create inflation in China is increasingly reliant on the real estate sector, with a notable narrowing of the year-on-year decline in transaction volume in October to -3.8%[8]. - The heat in the real estate market requires further observation, as the price trends of second-hand homes need to confirm a substantial recovery[8]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the current macroeconomic environment, the focus should be on the effectiveness of existing policies and potential new policies[10]. - Interest rate bonds remain the preferred asset class, as the bear market for these bonds has not yet officially begun, suggesting a buy-on-dips strategy[10]. - Attention should be paid to the alignment between risk appetite and corporate performance in the equity market[10].