策略点评：化债拉开国内财政扩张序幕， 为A股长牛夯实基础

Core Viewpoints - The return of Trump to the White House coincides with a shift in domestic policy, marking the beginning of a tug-of-war between domestic fiscal expansion and Trump's export restrictions [1][9] - In the short term, the market is focused on the recent National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting, which has led to a rational return of market expectations following multiple policy discussions since September [1][12] - In the medium term, the new round of debt reduction is expected to release fiscal space for local governments, enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies in real estate, consumption, and technological innovation, thereby promoting a high-quality economic recovery [1][12] Short-term Summary - The market is currently in a performance vacuum, with a potential shift back to technology growth before the next major policy window [1][12] - The recent meeting aligned with market expectations, leading to some funds being realized, indicating a cautious approach in the short term [1][12] Medium-term Summary - The debt reduction policy is anticipated to significantly increase the supply of special bonds within the year, with monetary policy expected to further loosen in coordination [1][12] - The fiscal policies are expected to improve both the numerator and denominator of A-shares, laying a foundation for a long-term bull market [1][12] External Factors - There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the execution of Trump's campaign promises on tariffs and their actual impact on China's export sector [2][13] - The recent economic data indicates improvements in domestic demand, supporting the notion that the current bull market is not merely driven by liquidity [2][13] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines: the release of fiscal space under the new debt reduction cycle, potential directions for increased fiscal spending to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic demand, and the acceleration of domestic controllable policies in response to increasing uncertainties from overseas technology restrictions [6][15] - Key upcoming events to monitor include the December Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference, the effects of recent incremental policy implementations, and developments in Trump's policy proposals and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [6][15]