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房地产行业周报：“重头戏”增量政策落地，二手房成交改善
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-11 01:26

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 6.83% in the Shenwan Real Estate Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index which rose by 5.5% [1][9] - The report indicates that the fundamentals of the sector are nearing a bottom, with ongoing policy support expected to lead to valuation recovery [2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.83% this week, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 5.5%, resulting in a relative return of 1.32% [1][9] - The performance of the real estate sector was stronger than the broader market [1] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of November 1-7, the total transaction volume of new homes in 38 key cities tracked by Zhongtai Real Estate was 30,327 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.9% and a month-on-month decline of 29.3% [1][13] - The total transaction area was 3.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.1% and a month-on-month decline of 25.7% [1][13] - In terms of city tiers, the transaction volume for first-tier cities decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, while second-tier and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 17.5% and 21.9%, respectively [13] 3. Key Company Performance - Companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments are highlighted as stable performers worth monitoring [2] - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with Poly Developments expected to have an EPS of 1.13 in 2024, and China Merchants Shekou projected at 0.90 [3] 4. Land Market Analysis - The land supply this week was 6,544 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 42.3% [4] - The average land price was 2,777 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [4] 5. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 6.25 billion yuan in credit bonds this week, marking a year-on-year increase of 81.2% [4]