国内观察：2024年10月通胀数据：价格水平仍处低位，但结构上已有亮点

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In October 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.3%, down from 0.4% in September, while the month-on-month change was -0.3% compared to 0.0% previously[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline was -2.9%, slightly worse than the -2.8% in September, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% compared to -0.6%[2] Group 2: Core Insights - The low price levels indicate insufficient domestic demand, with CPI being significantly affected by short-term food price fluctuations[2] - Core CPI showed signs of stabilization, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% and a year-on-year increase to 0.2%, indicating that the main drag came from food and energy prices[4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Trends - Food prices weakened in October, with pork prices dropping 3.7% month-on-month, reflecting a shift from previous seasonal increases due to improved weather conditions[3] - The extended Double Eleven shopping period starting in mid-October likely impacted consumer goods prices, contributing to the overall price weakness[3] Group 4: PPI Analysis - PPI performance was below expectations, with the year-on-year decline not narrowing as anticipated, indicating ongoing weak domestic demand[4] - The structural changes in PPI reflect a lag in actual demand improvement despite policy expectations, with production materials ending a four-month decline with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[4] Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, continued downturn in the real estate sector, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies[4]