Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a Positive investment rating for the utilities sector [1] Core Views - Trump's re-election is expected to accelerate traditional energy development, potentially leading to a decline in international energy prices and benefiting traditional energy sectors like thermal power [2][14] - The US may withdraw from the Paris Agreement, creating opportunities for strengthened China-EU cooperation in carbon neutrality [2][15] - The newly enacted Energy Law in China emphasizes the dual control of carbon emissions and the role of green certificates in energy transition, which is expected to benefit green power operators in the long term [3][19][21] Trump's Impact on Energy Sector - Trump's policies are expected to focus on traditional energy, including oil, natural gas, and coal, while opposing ESG investments and reducing subsidies for renewable energy [2][7][8] - The US is likely to increase fossil fuel exports, which could impact global energy prices and benefit China's traditional energy sectors [14] - Trump's administration may withdraw from the Paris Agreement, potentially weakening international climate cooperation but strengthening China-EU collaboration [15][16] Energy Law Highlights - The Energy Law introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [19][20] - Green certificates are recognized as a core mechanism for promoting green energy consumption, which could enhance the environmental value of green power [21] - The law expands its scope to include new energy sources, biomass, energy storage, hydrogen, and grid infrastructure, providing a comprehensive framework for China's energy transition [22][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional energy sectors benefiting from falling coal prices, such as thermal power, with recommendations for companies like Shanghai Electric Power [4][14] - Continue to recommend undervalued green power operators in Hong Kong, such as Longyuan Power and Datang Renewable Energy, and A-share companies like Three Gorges Energy and Guangxi Energy [4][18] - Pay attention to power equipment exporters, including Huaming Equipment and Sifang Electric, as the US plans to modernize its grid infrastructure [4][18] Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the utilities sector, including traditional power, renewable energy, and power equipment companies [25][26][27]
公用事业2024年第45周周报（20241110）：特朗普上台影响分析 能源法正式出台
华源证券·2024-11-11 01:36