基础化工行业周报：化债+内需驱动，民爆行业有望迎来景气上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the basic chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from local debt resolution and domestic demand improvement in the civil explosives sector [1]. Core Insights - The civil explosives industry is expected to directly benefit from the local debt resolution plan announced on November 8, which aims to alleviate local fiscal pressures. This sector is projected to see a recovery in cash flow as mining projects resume operations [1][17]. - The report indicates that the coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is poised for significant growth, driven by national strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative and energy security. The region's coal production is expected to increase substantially, supported by improved infrastructure and technology [3][18]. - Overall industry profitability is seen as bottoming out, with liquidity conditions improving, which may drive valuation recovery for key assets in the sector [4][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 85.39, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 15.23%. The industry price percentile is at 25.93%, indicating a low relative price level compared to the past decade [16]. Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include: - Sucralose (+5.7%) - R125 (+5.6%) - n-Butanol (+4.8%) [2][16]. - Conversely, significant price declines were observed in: - Butadiene (-6.8%) - Ethane (-4.7%) - Acetic acid (-4.5%) [16]. Industry Tracking - The civil explosives sector is experiencing a demand decline, with a 6.43% year-on-year drop in production value for the first three quarters of 2024. Key provinces facing the most significant declines include Shanxi, Hunan, and Heilongjiang [1][17]. - The coal chemical sector in Xinjiang is expected to undergo large-scale investment and development, with companies like Guanghui Energy and Baofeng Energy being highlighted as key players [3][18]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the civil explosives recovery, such as Poly United, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [1][17]. - It also recommends monitoring companies involved in Xinjiang's coal chemical projects, including Guanghui Logistics and Xuefeng Technology [3][18].