宏观研究：化债只是前奏，增量在明年

Group 1: Debt Policy and Fiscal Measures - The recent National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting approved an increase of 6 trillion CNY in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with an annual allocation of 2 trillion CNY from 2024 to 2026[4] - An additional 800 billion CNY will be allocated annually from new local government special bonds for debt resolution, totaling 2.8 trillion CNY over three years, exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion CNY[4] - The government will continue to bear responsibility for 2 trillion CNY of hidden debts due in 2029 and beyond, ensuring a safety net for these obligations[4] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal budget deficit is estimated to be between 1.5 trillion CNY and 2.5 trillion CNY, which will be addressed through the issuance of special bonds and adjustments in revenue contributions from central units[5] - The deficit rate may increase to between 3.5% and 4.5%, providing an additional 1 trillion to 2 trillion CNY in fiscal support to stimulate economic growth[12] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to rise to approximately 5.2 trillion CNY, with 800 billion CNY earmarked for debt resolution and additional funds for land recovery and housing[13] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Risks - Policies to support the real estate market, including tax incentives, are anticipated to be implemented soon, with hidden debt replacement prioritized[9] - The government plans to enhance central transfers to local governments, potentially including consumer support policies, although specific details remain to be clarified[14] - Risks include the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact market stability[15]