宏观双周报：三大事件靴子落地，关注基本面的兑现

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent economic data for October shows a recovery in PMI, but inflation levels and import growth remain low, indicating that the cumulative effects of policies are yet to materialize[2] - The announcement of a 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan is expected to eliminate debt risks, with the central bank likely to increase liquidity support[2] - CPI for October is at 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI is at -2.9%, reflecting insufficient domestic demand[13] Group 2: Policy and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. election results, with Trump’s victory, may increase external demand uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand policies[17] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%, but concerns about inflation persist[19] - A-share market has shown positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.62% over the past 10 trading days, indicating a return to domestic fundamentals[21] Group 3: Debt Management and Real Estate - Specific policies announced to resolve local government debt risks include measures to digest 10 trillion yuan of hidden liabilities, with a focus on maintaining fiscal discipline[10] - Real estate policies are expected to accelerate, with tax measures aimed at reducing transaction costs for new and second-hand homes[11] - The sales volume of new homes in October has turned positive for the first time since June of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[11]