2024年10月通胀数据点评：低于预期的通胀，静待增量政策起效

Inflation Data Summary - In October 2024, the CPI year-on-year decreased to 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was below market expectations[1] - Food prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while non-food prices fell by 0.3% year-on-year, an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.3%, contrasting with the previous month where it remained stable, and this growth rate is below the average increase of 0.12% for the same period over the past decade[1] Food Price Trends - In October, the price increase for fresh vegetables decreased to 21.6%, down 1.3 percentage points, while pork prices increased by 14.2%, a decrease of 2 percentage points[1] - The average wholesale price of pork saw a year-on-year increase, while the prices of 28 monitored vegetables and 7 monitored fruits showed a month-on-month decline[2] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Prices for production materials fell by 3.3%, remaining stable from the previous month, while living materials saw a decline of 1.6%, with the drop expanding by 0.3 percentage points[3] Future Outlook - Short-term CPI and PPI are expected to remain low, but there is potential for gradual recovery in the medium term due to policy support and improving domestic demand[4] - The anticipated impact of seasonal changes and promotional activities during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival may stabilize non-food prices in November[4]