宏观研究：货币政策锚由量转价，宽松力度可期

Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The overall tone of the monetary policy remains supportive, consistent with the second quarter report of 2024[2] - The central bank signals an acceleration in the adjustment of money supply, focusing on the M1 statistical caliber[2] - The report simplifies the expression regarding the establishment of interest rate marketization reform, indicating a basic alignment of short and long-term transmission mechanisms[2] Group 2: Money Supply and Financing - The adjustment of M1 statistical caliber reflects a significant evolution in the definition of financial products, impacting the reference and predictability of money supply indicators[12] - M1 year-on-year growth has shown a continuous decline, with a reported -3.31% in September 2024, compared to -7.4% prior to adjustments, indicating a less severe decline[14] - The report emphasizes a shift from indirect financing (credit) to direct financing, suggesting a weakening correlation between credit demand and economic growth[20] Group 3: Risk Management and Economic Outlook - The report indicates that risk resolution is nearing completion, with a steady recovery in social risk appetite expected[22] - Adjustments in risk management focus on high-risk institutions, particularly in real estate and local government debt sectors[23] - The current inflation level is moderate, and the correlation between money supply and inflation has weakened, primarily due to insufficient effective demand[21]