家电行业专题：外销延续高景气，内销有望持续复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price for key stocks such as Midea Group at 87.84 CNY, Gree Electric at 56.96 CNY, and Haier Smart Home at 36.96 CNY, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry continues to experience high external demand, with exports growing by 10.4% year-on-year in Q3, while domestic sales are expected to recover due to subsidy policies [2][4]. - The overall revenue growth of the home appliance industry slowed to 2.5% year-on-year in Q3, with small appliances and black appliances leading the growth [1][39]. - The profitability of the home appliance industry remains stable, with improvements in net profit margins for white goods, lighting, and upstream sectors [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Industry Overview - Q3 revenue growth for the home appliance industry was 2.5% year-on-year, down 3.2 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and real estate market conditions [1][39]. - Domestic sales are under pressure, but the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to boost consumer sentiment and sales [1][39]. 2. Export Performance - Q3 saw a robust external demand, with home appliance exports increasing by 10.4% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from emerging markets such as Latin America and Southeast Asia [2][40]. - The report highlights that despite rising tariff risks, the competitive strength of Chinese home appliance companies is expected to enhance their global market share [2]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the home appliance industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, influenced by price competition and rising raw material costs [3][12]. - Net profit margins remained stable, with significant improvements noted in white goods, lighting, and upstream sectors due to effective cost control measures [3][12]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing "old-for-new" subsidy policies will likely improve domestic sales trends, while stable demand in Europe and emerging markets will support export growth [4]. - Recommended stocks include Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Technology, among others, which are expected to benefit from these trends [4].