有色金属行业：需求超预期，锂价反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Demand for lithium and other metals has exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in lithium prices [1] - The domestic new energy vehicle market saw significant growth, with retail sales of 1.196 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 56.7% [14][18] - The photovoltaic sector also showed strong performance, with new installations reaching 20.89 GW in September, a year-on-year increase of 32% [12] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights a 3.47% increase in the Shenwan Nonferrous Index, with the lithium sector rising by 5.21% and the rare earth magnetic materials sector increasing by 6.77% [7] Lithium Market - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.70% to 76,000 CNY/ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices remained stable at 71,000 CNY/ton [9][11] - The report notes that lithium prices have fallen below the industry's marginal cost, prompting mining companies to reduce capital expenditures [1] Rare Earth Market - The report indicates that the supply of rare earths is tightening due to increased uncertainty in supply from Myanmar and domestic production control measures [1][9] - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide remained stable at 424,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide was priced at 1.75 million CNY/ton [9] Antimony and Tin Markets - Antimony prices have shown resilience, with domestic antimony ingot prices rising by 1.0% to 147,900 CNY/ton [2] - Tin prices are on an upward trend, with SHFE tin prices increasing by 1.91% to 260,800 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand and supply constraints [2] Electric Vehicle Market - In October, the U.S. electric vehicle sales reached 132,800 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.17% and a year-on-year increase of 18% [18] - The report notes that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the U.S. reached 10.0% [18] Photovoltaic Sector - The report emphasizes the strong growth in the photovoltaic sector, with a 27% month-on-month increase in new installations in September [12]