Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry [1] Core Views - The excessive competition in the deposit and loan markets is expected to ease, and the net interest margin (NIM) is projected to stabilize gradually [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in September decreased by 12bp and 14bp to 3.51% and 3.31%, respectively, reaching historical lows [2] - The central bank believes that the NIM is a significant constraint on monetary policy space, and future policies may guide financial institutions to enhance the linkage between asset and liability interest rate adjustments to maintain a reasonable NIM level [2] - The M1 statistical caliber may be revised, and the role of monetary aggregates in indicating economic activity is declining [3] - The banking sector is in a comfortable stage for allocation, with low valuations, high and stable dividend yields, and most negative factors already priced in [3] Industry Overview - The banking industry has 48 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 12,465.579 billion yuan, up 12.68% year-on-year [1] - The circulating market capitalization is 8,567.236 billion yuan, an increase of 10.75% year-on-year [1] - The industry's average price-to-earnings ratio is 5.94 [1] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on cyclical and high-growth stocks, particularly leading banks in strong economic regions such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [3] - Long-term focus on stable high-dividend stocks, especially state-owned banks, as the fiscal plan to issue special treasury bonds to supplement their core tier-1 capital will enhance the stability and sustainability of future dividends [3] Future Industry Events - Mid-November: Release of October social financing and financial data [4]
银行行业3Q24货币政策执行报告点评：存贷款市场过度竞争有望缓和，净息差预计逐步企稳
Dongxing Securities·2024-11-11 03:00