医药生物2024年三季报综述：坚守院内，创新担纲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [1]. Core Viewpoints - The industry shows significant differences between hospital and non-hospital sectors, with innovation driving incremental growth. Overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 remained flat year-on-year at -0.1%, while profit margins showed pressure with net profit declining by 6.0% and adjusted net profit down by 3.2% [2][10]. - The report highlights a notable decline in profits in Q3 2024 compared to H1 2024, primarily due to weakened consumer spending outside hospitals and a decrease in respiratory diseases [10]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand within hospitals, contrasting with weaker consumer willingness outside hospitals. Revenue growth rates for retail, chemical drugs, medical devices, and pharmaceutical distribution in the first three quarters of 2024 were 6.9%, 3.0%, 2.0%, and 1.2%, respectively, significantly exceeding the industry average [10][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has experienced a return to normal growth, with rigid demand in hospitals and structural changes driven by innovation. The report suggests that the industry is at a favorable point for investment due to low inventory levels and valuation bottoms [9][21]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue growth for the entire industry was flat at -0.1%, while net profit and adjusted net profit saw declines of 6.0% and 3.2%, respectively. The report notes that the profit margin decline in Q3 was more pronounced than in H1 [10][12]. - Specific sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical distribution outperformed the industry average in terms of adjusted net profit growth, with increases of 26.4% and 0.9%, respectively [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on hospital products (traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, and medical devices) with stable performance, recommending stocks such as Heng Rui Medicine, Ke Lun Pharmaceutical, and Mai Rui Medical for investment [21]. - It also highlights opportunities in the innovative drug supply chain and certain medical devices with overseas potential, recommending stocks like Ao Sai Kang and Yi Fang Biotechnology [21]. Market Positioning - As of the end of Q3 2024, the proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in public fund products was approximately 9.7%, a decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation relative to the total market capitalization of the pharmaceutical sector [15][16]. - The report indicates that the industry has reached a historical low in terms of valuation, suggesting a potential for recovery and growth in the coming quarters [16][21].