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有色金属行业周报:大选结果落地金价高位震荡,国内政策向好关注内需品种
Guotou Securities·2024-11-11 05:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the results of the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut align with expectations, leading to a positive outlook for industrial metal prices [2]. - It suggests focusing on companies such as Luoyang Zhonggui, Jincheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper, among others, due to favorable domestic policies and the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. election results and the Fed's interest rate cut on the industrial metals market, indicating a favorable environment for price elasticity in industrial metals [2]. Copper - LME copper closed at $9,433 per ton, down 1.11% from the previous week, while SHFE copper rose to ¥77,100 per ton, up 0.76% [3]. - The report notes a slight increase in copper rod operating rates to 76.03%, driven by demand from the home appliance sector [3]. - As of November 7, social copper inventory stood at 192,500 tons, a decrease of 17,300 tons [3]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,627 per ton, up 0.92%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,690 per ton, up 4.30% [4]. - The report indicates a tight supply of bauxite due to ongoing issues in Guinea, with domestic alumina operating rates at 83.64% [4]. - As of November 7, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was 563,000 tons, down 34,000 tons [4]. Zinc - LME zinc closed at $2,984 per ton, down 2.67%, while SHFE zinc rose to ¥25,025 per ton, up 0.64% [8]. - The report mentions that domestic zinc smelting plants are negotiating long-term contracts for next year, indicating a potential increase in demand during the winter storage season [8]. Lithium - The report notes that the Zulu lithium project remains suspended due to funding issues, while advancements in solid-state battery technology are being pursued [10]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at ¥75,400 per ton, reflecting a 2.1% increase [11]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold closed at $2,691.7 per ounce, down 1.97%, while silver closed at $31.425 per ounce, down 3.53% [15]. - The report emphasizes strong global central bank demand for gold, maintaining a positive outlook for gold prices [15].