2024年11月人大常委会会议学习体会：化债规模超预期，新增财政政策充满想象

Debt Policy - The debt resolution scale reached 12 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with hidden debt expected to decrease from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2028[1] - The new debt measures include 6 trillion yuan in special debt limits to replace hidden debts, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026[6] - An additional 800 billion yuan will be allocated annually from new local government special bonds for five years, totaling 4 trillion yuan for debt replacement[7] Economic Impact - The debt restructuring is projected to save local governments approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over five years[8] - Increased cash flow for local governments will allow for more spending on public welfare and economic development, improving overall economic liquidity[8] - The measures are expected to enhance the income and cash flow of residents and businesses, facilitating better economic circulation[8] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Ministry of Finance is planning additional fiscal policies, with expectations for further announcements in December regarding support for real estate and special bonds[11] - The anticipated issuance of special bonds may increase to 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a projected deficit rate of 3.5% to 4%[13] - The overall fiscal policy is expected to remain supportive of the stock market, with a target economic growth rate of around 5% for the year[16]