理想汽车-W：智慧驾驶推送加速，车辆毛利率回升明显

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.75 / HKD 132.16, indicating an upside potential of 31.80% / 37.60% from the current price [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 vehicle sales revenue of RMB 41.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.3%. Total vehicle deliveries reached 153,000 units, up 45.4% year-on-year. The vehicle gross margin improved to 20.9% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.81 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. The new product L6 significantly boosted overall sales, achieving an average monthly sales volume of 25,000 units, increasing the market share in the domestic new energy vehicle segment priced above RMB 200,000 from 14.4% in Q2 2024 to 17.3% in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company plans to enhance L6 production capacity in Q4 2024 and has guided for Q4 deliveries of 160,000 to 170,000 units, with revenue guidance of RMB 43.2 billion to RMB 45.9 billion [1]. Financial Performance - The R&D expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The SG&A expense ratio was 7.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company has launched a new autonomous driving technology architecture and conducted large-scale testing, with 70% of users opting for the AD max version in over 300,000 delivered vehicles [1]. - The company is preparing for the launch of pure electric models, with 479 retail centers and 436 after-sales service centers across 145 cities, and has established 894 supercharging stations with 4,286 charging piles [1]. Future Projections - The report forecasts vehicle sales of 515,000 units, 718,000 units, and 944,000 units for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with revenues of RMB 147.5 billion, RMB 191.6 billion, and RMB 221.3 billion. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 7.84 billion, RMB 12.99 billion, and RMB 16.75 billion for the same years [1].