Soochow Securities·2024-11-11 07:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [1][4][22] Core Views - October sales reached 500,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 14%, setting a historical record. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 3.25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36% [2][10] - The report anticipates Q4 sales to approach 1.4 million units, with an annual sales forecast of over 4.2 million units, including 400,000 to 450,000 units for export [2][10] - The company is expected to achieve over 5 million units in sales by 2025, with exports nearly doubling to 800,000 units [2][10] Sales Performance - In October, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales were 311,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 129%, accounting for 62.1% of total sales. Pure electric vehicle sales were 190,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15% [3][13] - From January to October, domestic sales reached 2.92 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, while overseas sales reached 329,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 86.9% [3][13] Battery Installation and Production - Cumulative battery installations reached 149 GWh from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 28%. In October alone, installations were 21 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 38% [4][20] - The report projects battery shipments to reach 270 GWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 40-50% [4][20] Financial Forecasts - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 40 billion, 51 billion, and 61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 27%, and 20% [4][22] - The target price for 2025 is set at 438 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 25x [4][22] Market Data - The closing price is 297.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 866.67 billion yuan [6][24] - The company has a P/E ratio of 28.85 for 2023 and is projected to decrease to 14.19 by 2026 [6][24]