煤炭行业2024年三季报综述：动力煤环比盈利改善，焦煤承压静待拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1][3]. Core Insights - The coal industry has shown overall stability in operation, with coal prices experiencing a decline followed by an increase. The average closing price for Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal was approximately 848.09 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 2.09%. The main coking coal price at Jingtang port was 1,893.79 CNY/ton, down approximately 10.98% year-on-year [1][58]. - The report highlights a recovery in demand for coal, particularly driven by seasonal factors and macroeconomic policies, which have positively influenced market sentiment [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Conditions - As of October 31, 2024, the Shenwan first-level coal industry index fell by 9.16 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 index. The thermal coal index increased by 5.21%, while the coking coal and coke indices decreased by 29.05% and 32.71%, respectively [58]. - In Q3 2024, national coal production increased by 4.22% year-on-year, while thermal coal demand rose by 4.25%. However, coking coal demand decreased by 1.31% [58]. 2. Operating Conditions 2.1 Profitability Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2024, the 37 coal companies listed on A-shares reported total operating revenue of 1,067.416 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 119.642 billion CNY, down 21.76% year-on-year [2][63]. - The revenue breakdown shows that thermal coal, coking coal, and coke segments generated revenues of 787.078 billion CNY, 237.122 billion CNY, and 43.216 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.80%, 9.94%, and 16.18% [64]. 2.2 Operational Efficiency Analysis - In Q3 2024, the coal industry saw a slight recovery with total operating revenue of 356.913 billion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.09% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.586 billion CNY, up 3.34% quarter-on-quarter but down 9.46% year-on-year [66][68]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high dividends and stable profits, such as China Shenhua (601088.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH). It also highlights companies that can stabilize price fluctuations, such as Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) and Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) [3][4].