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煤炭行业周报:电煤日耗环比提升,库存仍维持较高水平
CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-11-11 07:26

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the coal industry [1][30]. Core Viewpoints - The supply side for thermal coal remains stable with most coal mines operating normally, while the demand side shows limited increases in daily consumption due to high inventory levels [1][27]. - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to remain stable with limited potential for significant increases, as the market is currently in a balanced supply-demand situation [1][29]. - The report suggests that companies with strong cash flow and stable assets are well-positioned for sustained high dividends, maintaining a long-term value proposition [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From November 4 to November 8, 2024, the Shenwan Coal Index increased by 1.96%, with coking coal and coke showing significant gains [8]. - The top five performing stocks included Yongtai Energy (+25.00%) and Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (+20.20%), while the bottom performers included Shaanxi Coal and Energy (-3.85%) and China Shenhua (-2.14%) [8]. 2. Key Industry Data 2.1 Thermal Coal - As of November 8, 2024, the price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 727.00 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [11][29]. - Inventory levels for thermal coal at northern ports reached 35.25 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.86% [13][28]. 2.2 Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,640.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5.75% week-on-week [15][29]. - Coking coal inventories at three ports totaled 4.04 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.58% [15][28]. 2.3 Downstream Demand - National electricity consumption reached 847.50 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.50% [20]. - The daily coal consumption at key power plants showed a week-on-week decrease of 0.95% but a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [20]. 3. Industry News - The Energy Law was passed, emphasizing the optimization of coal production and consumption structures to promote clean and efficient use of coal [23]. - In October 2024, coal imports increased by 28.50% year-on-year, totaling 46.25 million tons [24]. 4. Key Company Announcements - Pingmei Shenma Group won a coal exploration right in Xinjiang for 1.748 billion CNY, which will enhance its resource reserves [25]. - Shaanxi Coal and Energy reported a coal production volume of 14.07 million tons in October 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.46% [26]. 5. Weekly Outlook - The report anticipates stable supply conditions for both thermal and coking coal, with no immediate production cuts expected [27]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain steady, with power plants maintaining rigid purchasing strategies despite high inventory levels [27].