好太太：期待以旧换新表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 360 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 50 million, down 46.8% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 1.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 190 million, down 20.1% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing supplier sourcing, centralized bargaining, and procurement to maintain reasonable raw material prices and stabilize gross margins [1] - The company is committed to a full-channel sales model, with online sales revenue and volume still higher than offline sales [2] - The "old-for-new" initiative is progressing differently across online and offline channels due to varying regional subsidy policies [2] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 52.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 17.8%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points [3] - Smart product sales accounted for over 85% of total sales, meeting the company's expectations [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9 yuan, respectively, with PE ratios of 20X, 19X, and 16X [2] - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 1.72 billion, with a growth rate of 2.1% [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be 286.15 million, a decrease of 12.56% year-on-year [9] - The company's gross margin for 2024E is forecasted to be 51%, with a net margin of 16.6% [12] Channel and Product Strategy - The company is deepening its sales network and improving the quality of channel operations, particularly in lower-tier markets [2] - Online channels are stabilizing traditional e-commerce market share while accelerating penetration into new platforms like Douyin [3] - The company is continuously upgrading its product portfolio, with smart products accounting for over 85% of sales [3] Market and Industry Context - The domestic real estate market is under pressure, impacting the company's performance [2] - The company is leveraging its supply chain, product design, and brand advantages to maintain stable gross and net profit levels [3]