宝丰能源：检修影响短期盈利，不改中长期成长性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was slightly below expectations due to a narrowing price spread of core products and maintenance impacts [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.275 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.99%, with a net profit of 4.537 billion yuan, up 16.60% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to see significant growth from its Inner Mongolia project, which is set to gradually commence production in November 2024 [3] - The company is also planning a new 4 million tons coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth potential [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.91% [3] - The average prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke in Q3 2024 were 7,023 yuan, 6,808 yuan, and 1,308 yuan per ton, showing year-on-year changes of -2.57%, +1.82%, and -11.70% respectively [3] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 34.12%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Growth Prospects - The Inner Mongolia project includes a 2.6 million tons/year coal-to-olefins facility and a 400,000 tons/year green hydrogen coupling project, which is the largest of its kind globally [3] - The Xinjiang project is expected to leverage low-cost coal resources, further enhancing profitability [3] Investment Analysis - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.589 billion, 13.567 billion, and 15.040 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease in polyethylene and polypropylene price expectations [3] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18, 9, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]