美国大选跟踪报告：特朗普重返白宫，关注后续政策落地情况

Group 1: Election Outcome and Policy Direction - Trump won the U.S. election with a significant lead in electoral votes, securing over 270 votes, and the Republican Party has gained control of the Senate[8] - If the Republican Party also secures the House of Representatives, it will facilitate the implementation of Trump's fiscal policies[9] - Trump's policies emphasize "America First," focusing on protecting the U.S. economy and its global political standing, with a conservative approach to immigration and inflation[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's fiscal policies are expected to increase the budget deficit, with a larger fiscal spending plan and reduced corporate tax rates from 21% to 15%[14] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and high tariffs may lead to increased inflationary pressures, with concerns about a second wave of inflation outweighing fears of economic contraction[15] - The U.S. economy is likely to improve, while non-U.S. economies may face relative pressure due to Trump's policies[17] Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Impact - U.S. trade policies towards China are expected to tighten, with proposed tariffs of 10% on global imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods, potentially increasing inflation in the U.S.[18] - The ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and China is anticipated to be a prolonged conflict, with both sides negotiating around core interests[19] - U.S. stock markets may see marginal boosts, particularly in growth sectors, while U.S. Treasury bonds may face pressure due to rising yields[20]