基础化工行业2024年三季报总结：24Q3盈利环比走弱，周期磨底静待拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry experienced a decline in profitability in Q3 2024, with revenue and profit under pressure on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The industry is currently in a bottoming phase, awaiting demand recovery [2][3][5]. - Despite the weak overall supply-demand relationship, there are investment opportunities in certain sub-sectors due to supply-side disruptions or catalysts that enhance profitability [3][5]. - The industry is expected to gradually recover from the cyclical bottom by 2025, with recommendations for leading companies with cost advantages and growth trends [3][5]. Summary by Sections Overview - Q3 2024 profitability declined, with the basic chemical index down 0.76% from January to October 2024, ranking 22nd among primary sub-industries. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 500 indices rose by 14.90% and 9.09%, respectively, indicating underperformance of the basic chemical sector [3][5]. - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" did not perform as expected, but there are structural opportunities anticipated due to domestic growth policies and overseas liquidity easing [3][5]. Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the sector achieved revenue of CNY 18,552.53 billion, a slight decrease of 1.45% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1,041.71 billion, down 8.45% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.61% [3][8]. - In Q3 2024, the sector's revenue was CNY 6,264.31 billion (down 3.38% year-on-year, down 4.33% quarter-on-quarter), and net profit was CNY 301.70 billion (down 16.34% year-on-year, up 23.92% quarter-on-quarter) [3][8]. Operations - Operating cash flow showed a year-on-year increase, with Q1-Q3 2024 operating cash flow at CNY 1,538 billion, a slight increase of 0.57% year-on-year. The net cash ratio (operating cash flow/net profit) was 1.48, indicating improved earnings quality [19][20]. Supply - Capital expenditure in Q1-Q3 2024 was CNY 197.7 billion, down 19.16% year-on-year, while the balance of ongoing projects showed growth due to previous capital expenditures [20].