食品饮料行业周报：板块反弹逻辑及配置思路再探讨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a significant rebound, with the CITIC Food and Beverage Index rising approximately 7.1% during the week of November 4-8, 2024, driven by improved domestic demand and expectations of fiscal policy [9][10]. - The rebound logic is characterized by two main phases: from September 19 to October 8, driven by expectations of a shift in macro fiscal policy, primarily benefiting liquor companies; and from October 8 to November 6, driven by anticipated mergers and acquisitions in the capital market and post-third-quarter report positioning in high-performing segments like snacks and dairy [9][10]. - The average rebound for the food and beverage sector from September 19 to November 6 exceeded 25%, with companies like Three Squirrels and Shede Liquor showing significant recovery from previous lows [9][10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector's rebound is attributed to improved domestic demand and fiscal policy expectations, with a notable increase in the CITIC Food and Beverage Index [9]. - Key drivers of the rebound include macro fiscal policy shifts and capital market consolidation expectations, particularly in the liquor segment [9][10]. Key Data Tracking - As of November 8, 2024, the food and beverage sector's valuation (PE TTM) stands at 23 times, down approximately 6.0% from the beginning of the year [10]. - The CITIC liquor index PE is 22 times, down about 9.9%, while the CITIC beverage index PE is 22 times, up about 3.5% [10]. Important Company Announcements - Key announcements include sales reports from Kemei Foods and shareholding changes in Ganyuan Foods, indicating ongoing adjustments in the sector [22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and valuations for major companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with projected net profits and EPS for 2023-2025 [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining positions in dairy and snack sectors as core holdings, with specific recommendations for Yili and Yanjinpuzi [26]. - It also advises flexible trading in underperforming stocks with potential for recovery, such as Juewei Foods and Shede Liquor [26].