FICC&资产配置周观察：如何理解大选前后的金价波动？

Group 1 - The report highlights that after the U.S. election results on November 6, 2024, international gold prices experienced a significant adjustment, with London gold prices dropping over 3% to below $2,700 per ounce, while domestic gold prices fell by 2% due to the depreciation of the RMB [2][14] - The report attributes the gold price drop to several factors, including a reduction in geopolitical uncertainty premium, Trump's less aggressive political stance compared to Harris, and short-term profit-taking due to overbought conditions in gold [2][14] - Historical patterns indicate that gold price adjustments following U.S. election results align with past trends, with the dollar briefly surpassing 105 and the RMB depreciating to 7.20 [2][14] Group 2 - The report discusses the correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold prices in the month leading up to the election, noting that both assets saw significant movements due to heightened market risk aversion and political uncertainty [3][17] - It mentions that the market's perception of future U.S. economic policies and geopolitical tensions, such as the North Korea situation and the Israel-Palestine conflict, contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][17] - The report also notes that the gold price has risen approximately 68% since October 2022, indicating a potential ongoing bull market despite expected price consolidation towards the end of the year [4][17] Group 3 - The report indicates that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reached 123% in 2023 and is expected to rise further in 2024, which may lead to increased market concerns regarding U.S. sovereign credit, thereby boosting gold's appeal as a safer asset [4][20] - It highlights that global central banks are continuing to reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a trend that may provide further support for gold prices in emerging markets [4][20] - The report notes that major gold ETFs, such as SPDR Gold Shares, have shifted from net selling to net buying of gold since the second half of 2024, indicating a potential change in market sentiment towards gold [4][20]