长海股份：季度盈利继续改善，竞争力显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Changhai Company (300196 SZ) [4] Core Views - Changhai Company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 6 8 billion yuan flat YoY with net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million yuan up 4 YoY [1][4] - The company's Q3 gross margin improved slightly to 24 5 up 0 5 percentage points QoQ while net profit margin rose to 11 8 up 0 8 percentage points QoQ [4] - The fiberglass segment showed stronger profit recovery compared to the chemical segment which faced pressure due to weaker unsaturated resin industry performance [4] - Global fiberglass demand is expected to grow by 5 in 2024 with supply-demand balance improving due to limited new capacity additions [5] - By 2025 fiberglass demand is projected to grow by 6 driven by accelerated demand in wind power and steady growth in electronics automotive and home appliances sectors [5] - Changhai is expanding its production capacity with a 600 000-ton high-performance fiberglass manufacturing base and upgrading existing lines to enhance profitability [6] - The company's net profit is forecasted to reach 290 million yuan in 2024 and 450 million yuan in 2025 with corresponding valuations of 18x and 12x P/E [6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024 Changhai achieved revenue of 19 0 billion yuan down 4 YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders of 202 million yuan down 30 YoY [1][4] - Q3 2024 revenue was 6 8 billion yuan flat YoY with net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million yuan up 4 YoY [1][4] - The company's Q3 operating expenses ratio was 13 2 up 0 5 percentage points QoQ mainly due to increased financial expenses from foreign exchange losses [4] - Changhai's capacity is expected to expand from 300 000 tons to 500 000 tons by the end of 2024 with further growth potential from the 600 000-ton base project [6] Industry Outlook - Global fiberglass demand is expected to grow by 5 in 2024 with new capacity additions of 700 000 tons and net production increase of 400 000 tons [5] - In 2025 demand growth is projected at 6 with new capacity additions of 600 000 tons and net production increase of 650 000 tons maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [5] - The wind power sector is a key driver with domestic wind power installations expected to reach 105GW in 2025 up 20 YoY [5] - Supply additions are expected to decrease in 2026 [5]