JCF(000420) Guohai Securities·2024-11-11 09:25Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in viscose filament yarn, with Q3 net profit increasing sequentially [4] - The company has a viscose filament yarn capacity of approximately 80,000 tons/year, with a global total capacity of 250,000-280,000 tons/year [4] - The company's viscose filament yarn is mainly exported, with customers in over 20 provinces in China and multiple countries worldwide [4] - The company is expanding into the carbon fiber sector, with a current capacity of 12,000 tons/year for carbon fiber composites [7] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with net profit increasing from 87 million yuan in 2024 to 169 million yuan in 2026 [8] Market Data - Current price: 4.15 yuan [3] - 52-week price range: 2.18-4.57 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization: 10,204.30 million yuan [3] - Average daily turnover: 493.19 million yuan [3] - Turnover rate for the past month: 4.36% [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 1.023 billion yuan, down 0.11 billion yuan year-on-year but up 0.164 billion yuan sequentially [4] - Q3 2024 net profit: 22 million yuan, up 16 million yuan year-on-year and 3 million yuan sequentially [4] - Q3 2024 gross profit: 167 million yuan, up 15 million yuan year-on-year and 31 million yuan sequentially [4] - Q3 2024 viscose filament yarn price: 44,109 yuan/ton, up 5.02% year-on-year but down 2.01% sequentially [4] - Q3 2024 viscose filament yarn apparent consumption: 35,757 tons, up 51.39% year-on-year and 1.94% sequentially [4] Industry Outlook - The viscose filament yarn industry is consolidating, with increasing market concentration [4] - The carbon fiber market is facing oversupply and intense competition, with prices down 21.30% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [5] - The company aims to increase the proportion of carbon fiber composite products in total output, targeting over 20% by the end of 2024 and over 60% by 2030 [7] - The company is expanding its carbon fiber applications beyond wind power to include photovoltaics, construction reinforcement, automotive lightweighting, pressure vessels, and sports leisure [7] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 3.604 billion yuan, 3.899 billion yuan, and 4.135 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 87 million yuan, 136 million yuan, and 169 million yuan, respectively [8] - Expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 117x, 75x, and 60x, respectively [8] - Expected ROE for 2024-2026: 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively [10]