煤炭行业定期报告：政策加持下焦煤配置价值逐步显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the value of coking coal is gradually becoming apparent under supportive policies, with a focus on the potential for price rebounds in both thermal and coking coal due to seasonal demand and policy support [2][3]. - The coal industry is positioned in a "golden era" due to supply constraints driven by strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, suggesting sustained demand and profitability for coal companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index increased by 1.96% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 5.5%, indicating that the coal sector underperformed the broader market by 3.55 percentage points [8]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 7.71%, compared to a 19.61% increase in the broader index, showing a lag of 11.9 percentage points [8]. 2. Thermal Coal - As of November 8, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 847 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1% [2][19]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 83.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week [2][26]. - The report anticipates a rebound in port prices following an increase in production prices at coal-producing regions due to seasonal heating demand [2]. 3. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was 1640 CNY/ton as of November 8, 2024, down 100 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. - The report notes that while demand may decline as the industry enters a seasonal lull, improved macroeconomic policies could support coking coal prices [2]. 4. Supply and Demand - The daily coal consumption of six major power plants was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons week-on-week [28]. - The inventory of these power plants increased to 1,486.8 million tons, up 12.9 million tons from the previous week [28]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of coal demand, driven by ongoing economic activity and energy needs [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2]. - It also highlights companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential as attractive investment opportunities [2].