交通运输行业周报（2024年11月4日-11月10日）：航空及物流相对收益明显，关注交运顺周期改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The aviation and logistics sectors show significant relative returns, with expectations for cyclical improvements in the transportation industry [2] - Beijing's two airports have surpassed a cumulative passenger throughput of 100 million this year, marking a 29% increase compared to the same period in 2023 and a recovery of 118% compared to 2019 [1][6] - The BAI index has risen, indicating positive trends in air cargo, with the BAI100 at 2343.00, up 4.1% week-on-week and 10.9% year-on-year [1][6] - The shipping sector is expected to see sustained growth due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, alongside increasing demand driven by non-OPEC production [8] - The express delivery sector remains resilient, with demand holding strong and prices at historical lows, suggesting limited downside [8] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - Limited new orders for oil tankers combined with an aging fleet create supply tightness, while increasing non-OPEC production benefits oil transportation demand [8] - The dry bulk shipping market is experiencing weak supply and demand, but environmental regulations are pushing out older vessels, aiding market recovery [8] - The shipbuilding cycle is beginning a green upgrade phase, with tight shipbuilding capacity expected to drive up ship prices [8] Express Delivery - Current express delivery demand is robust, with terminal prices at historical lows and limited downward space [8] - The industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for price increases and improved sentiment [8] - Long-term focus on leading companies is recommended due to their competitive advantages in capacity, scale, pricing, and cost reduction [8] Supply Chain Logistics - The express logistics landscape is improving, with competition slowing down and cyclical elasticity expected [8] - Chemical logistics present significant market opportunities, with tightening entry barriers and potential for consolidation [8] Aviation - Current focus on holiday travel data suggests further improvement in aviation demand, supported by a favorable competitive landscape and supply-demand dynamics [9] - The industry is expected to see low supply growth with high certainty, and international routes are showing signs of recovery [9]