家电行业周报：降息有望拉动美国地产及工具市场复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the home appliance industry [2]. Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market has shown signs of recovery since early 2024, which is expected to drive a new cycle of demand in the tool market. The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will gradually alleviate the refinancing lock-in effect, thereby stimulating the tool market [2][9]. - The home appliance sector has experienced a weekly increase, with the Shenwan Home Appliance Index rising by 2.32%, although it underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 3.18 percentage points. The industry PE (TTM) stands at 15 times, ranking 25th among 28 primary industries, indicating relatively low valuation levels [2][15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in the U.S. real estate market, which has been sluggish since September 2021 due to high mortgage rates. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to unlock refinancing opportunities, thus boosting demand for tools as a downstream product of real estate [2][9]. 2. Weekly Market Performance - For the week of November 4 to November 8, 2024, the home appliance sector saw an increase, with various sub-sectors showing different performance levels. Black appliances, appliance components, kitchen and bathroom appliances, small appliances, lighting equipment, and white goods had respective weekly changes of -2.3%, +14.0%, +8.6%, +2.9%, +8.0%, and +0.6% [2][15]. - The top-performing stocks included Haili Co. (+61.6%), Sanhua Intelligent Control (+16.5%), Joyoung Co. (+16.1%), and Marsman (+15.3%). Conversely, Sichuan Changhong (-9.4%) and Quan Feng Holdings (-6.5%) were among the worst performers [2][18]. 3. Key Industry Data - The report highlights significant changes in raw material prices, with SHFE rebar prices up by 0.3%, aluminum prices up by 4.3%, and copper prices up by 1.0%. The residential construction area and sales data for September 2024 showed a year-on-year decline of 24.4% and 17.1%, respectively [2][3]. - Retail sales data for home appliances in September 2024 reached CNY 841 billion, marking a 20.5% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [2][3]. 4. Production and Sales Data - Air conditioner production in August 2024 was 11.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with total sales reaching 13.06 million units, up 7.3% year-on-year. Retail sales for September showed significant growth, with online and offline sales increasing by 81.6% and 71.3%, respectively [2][3]. - Refrigerator production was 8.42 million units in August 2024, up 7.5% year-on-year, with total sales increasing by 10.0%. Retail sales for September also showed strong growth, with online and offline sales increasing by 45% and 46.7%, respectively [2][3]. - Washing machine production reached 8.11 million units in August 2024, up 12.7% year-on-year, with total sales also increasing by 12.8% [2][3].