食品饮料2024三季报总结：白酒提质降速，大众品表现分化

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (maintained) [1] Core Views - The liquor industry is focusing on quality improvement and speed reduction, with demand-side refinement, channel-side inventory reduction, and financial statement-side speed reduction, leading to a healthier industry. The fundamentals and expectations are bottoming out, and the portfolio structure is continuously optimized, suggesting a two-step process of expectation-first and fundamentals-repair. Key players to watch include leading companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional liquor companies with high certainty such as Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinhuijiu [2] - The mass consumer goods sector showed divergence in Q3, with soft drinks and condiments maintaining positive growth, while B-end scenarios continued to face pressure. With the upcoming Spring Festival season, demand is expected to marginally improve. Key areas to focus on include snack, catering supply, condiment, and dairy product leaders, as well as the beer sector benefiting from policy support and high-growth companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Bright Dairy [2] Liquor Industry - In Q3 2024, the liquor sector's revenue increased by 1.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 2.2% YoY. High-end liquor revenue grew by 9.6%, while sub-high-end and regional liquor revenues declined by 0.3% and 16.9%, respectively. The sector continued to slow down, releasing financial statement pressure. High-end liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai remained stable, while regional liquor companies showed significant divergence, with some like Gujing Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu maintaining steady performance [3] - The liquor industry is shifting towards stable growth and strong dividends, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye announcing dividend plans. This trend is expected to encourage more cash-rich liquor companies to enhance shareholder returns [3] Beer and Beverage Industry - The beer sector faced pressure in Q3 2024 due to weak consumption and terminal pressure, with revenue declining by 3.3% YoY. However, cost benefits offset the slight increase in sales expenses, keeping the net profit margin stable. The soft beverage sector saw revenue growth of 4.9% YoY, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage performing well despite intense competition [4] Food Industry - The snack sector's revenue declined by 0.4% YoY in Q3 2024, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.7% YoY, driven by cost benefits and improved management efficiency. The catering supply chain sector saw a 2.8% YoY decline in revenue, while the meat and卤味 sector's revenue decline narrowed significantly, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 18.3% YoY. The condiment sector showed a noticeable improvement, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.7% and 15.7% YoY, respectively, benefiting from lower raw material and packaging costs [5] - The dairy sector's fundamentals improved in Q3 2024 after active inventory reduction, with revenue declining by 7.6% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 4.9% YoY. The health product sector faced weak demand and intense competition, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 15.9% and 31.6% YoY, respectively [5]