证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 信贷"开门红"成色几何？ 事件：2026 年 1 月新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿，前值 9100 亿，预期 4.5 万 亿，去年同期 5.13 万亿；新增社融 7.22 万亿，前值 2.21 万亿，预期 6.51 万亿，去年同期 7.05 万亿；存量社融增速 8.2%，前值 8.3%；M2 同比 9%，预期 8.4%，前值 8.5%；M1 同比 4.9%，预期 2.9%，前值 3.8%。 核心结论：整体看，1 月信贷"开门红"成色不足，集中体现在居民中长 期贷款表现偏弱，企业中长期贷款转为少增，企业短贷有冲量迹象等；社 融在政府债券、企业债券等的支撑下表现尚可。从 1 月货币金融数据来看， 当前经济有 3 点特征：一是财政靠前发力迹象明显，包括消费补贴提前下 达后居民消费有改善迹象、居民短贷同比转为多增，政府债券在高基数的 基础上多增；二是地产、制造业投资仍然承压，居民中长期贷款和企业中 长期贷款表现均偏弱；三是居民存款活化或在加快，M1 增速抬升，非银 存款和居民存款一增一减。往后看，继续提示：当前经济仍属于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) [3] Core Viewpoints - Kingsoft Office is positioned to be a core beneficiary of the new AI office trend, particularly with the launch of Claude for Excel and Claude for PowerPoint, which introduce AI functionalities to enhance user experience in office software [1][2][3] - The company is recognized as a leading provider of office software and services in China, with a strong technical foundation and market positioning, which is expected to drive growth in the AI office sector [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kingsoft Office are estimated to be CNY 6.01 billion, CNY 7.12 billion, and CNY 8.42 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 17.4%, 18.5%, and 18.3% [3][5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach CNY 1.86 billion, CNY 2.22 billion, and CNY 2.71 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 13.1%, 19.3%, and 22.3% [3][5] - The report highlights an expected EPS of CNY 4.01, CNY 4.79, and CNY 5.85 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5] Market Position - Kingsoft Office serves users in over 220 countries and regions, with products compatible across major operating systems including Windows, Linux, MacOS, Android, and iOS [3] - The company is recognized for its strong market position and technological capabilities, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge in the AI office software market [3]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 金山办公（688111.SH） Claude for excel 问世，公司有望核心受益于 AI 办公新趋势 事件：近日，Claude 发布 Claude for excel 和 claude for powerpoint，提 供基于办公软件的 AI 新功能，产业层面上打开全新可能。 Claude for excel 可以通过 AI 理解、修改表格，并保持结构和公式关系 完整。这一新功能允许用户在 Microsoft Excel 的侧边栏中直接与 Claude 协作，Claude 能够读取、分析、修改并创建新的 Excel 工作簿。Claude 对 其执行的操作保持完全透明：它会跟踪并解释所做的更改，并允许用户直 接导航到其解释中引用的单元格。这意味着 Claude 可以讨论电子表格的 工作原理，在修改时保持其结构和公式依赖关系，调试和修复单元格公式， 用新数据和假设填充模板，或者完全从头开始构建新的电子表格。 Claude for PPT 可以在模板完整情况下实现对 PPT 内容的上下文精准 编辑。这一新功能可以构建幻灯 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the coal mining industry in Mongolia, highlighting its rich resources and potential for growth in exports, particularly to China [19][25]. Core Insights - Mongolia has abundant coal resources, with proven reserves of 252 million tons as of the end of 2020, including 135 million tons of lignite and brown coal, and 117 million tons of anthracite and bituminous coal [7][11]. - The coal mining sector is crucial for Mongolia's economy, with coal accounting for over 90% of the country's primary energy consumption, primarily used for power generation and exports [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of coal exports to China, which accounted for 94.9% of Mongolia's coal exports in 2024, showcasing the reliance on this market for growth [22][25]. Summary by Sections Coal Resource Overview - Mongolia's coal resources are mainly distributed across five regions, with the northern and southern areas being the most productive, contributing to 99% of the total output [7][11]. - The country has approximately 300 coal mines, with a significant portion of high-quality coking coal suitable for metallurgical processes [11][19]. Production and Export Trends - Coal production in Mongolia has seen fluctuations, with a peak of 32 million tons in 2011, primarily driven by export demand [21]. - The report forecasts a cumulative coal production of 97.72 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% from 2013 to 2024 [21]. - In 2025, coal production is expected to slow down due to a decline in demand from the Chinese coking coal market [21]. Infrastructure and Trade Ports - Key coal export ports include Gashuunsukhait, Tsagaan Khad, and Mandula, with ongoing improvements in cross-border railway and logistics infrastructure to enhance export capacity [28][32]. - The report outlines various railway projects aimed at increasing coal export volumes by approximately 4 million tons annually [32]. Company Insights: Mongolian Coal - Mongolian Coal is identified as the largest high-quality coking coal producer and exporter in Mongolia, with a diversified resource portfolio including gold and copper [40][41]. - The company has strategically shifted towards resource diversification, reducing reliance on coal by expanding into gold and copper mining [46][90]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported total coal reserves of 612 million tons, with a focus on enhancing production capabilities and market presence [56][61]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown significant growth, particularly from 2015 to 2019, driven by increased demand from infrastructure projects in China [55]. - The report notes a typical cyclical fluctuation in revenue, with a notable increase in 2022 and 2023, followed by a decrease in the first half of 2025 [55][61]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The report details the cost structure of coal production, with average costs remaining stable around $77 per ton from 2018 to the first half of 2025 [71]. - Pricing strategies are influenced by market dynamics, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing in the context of international coal markets [68][70].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the coal mining industry in Mongolia, highlighting its rich resources and potential for growth in exports, particularly to China [19][25]. Core Insights - Mongolia has abundant coal resources, with proven reserves of 252 million tons as of the end of 2020, including 135 million tons of lignite and brown coal, and 117 million tons of anthracite and bituminous coal [7][11]. - The coal mining sector is crucial for Mongolia's economy, with coal accounting for over 90% of the country's primary energy consumption, primarily used for power generation and exports [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of coal exports to China, which accounted for 94.9% of Mongolia's coal exports in 2024, showcasing the reliance on this market for growth [22][25]. Summary by Sections Coal Resource Overview - Mongolia's coal resources are distributed across various regions, with the northern and southern areas being the most productive, contributing to 99% of the total output [7][11]. - The country has approximately 300 coal mines, with a significant portion of high-quality coking coal suitable for metallurgical processes [11][19]. Production and Export Trends - Coal production in Mongolia has seen fluctuations, with a peak of 32 million tons in 2011, primarily driven by export demand [21]. - The report forecasts a cumulative coal production of 97.72 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% from 2013 to 2024 [21]. - In 2025, coal production is expected to slow down due to a decline in demand from the Chinese coking coal market [21]. Infrastructure and Trade Ports - Key coal export ports include Gashuunsukhait, Tsagaan Khad, and Mandula, with ongoing improvements in cross-border railway and logistics infrastructure to enhance export capacity [28][32]. - The report outlines various railway projects aimed at increasing coal export volumes by approximately 4 million tons annually [32]. Company Analysis: Mongolian Coal - Mongolian Coal is identified as the largest producer and exporter of high-quality coking coal in Mongolia, with diversified mineral resource development including gold and copper [40][43]. - The company has a strategic focus on expanding its resource base and reducing dependency on coal by entering the gold and copper sectors [46][90]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported total coal reserves of 612 million tons, with significant production capabilities from its UHG and BN mines [56][58]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown cyclical fluctuations, with significant growth from 2015 to 2019, followed by a contraction during the pandemic, and a resurgence in 2021-2024 [55]. - The report highlights that coal sales remain the primary revenue source, with hard coking coal contributing the majority of sales [55][67]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The report details the cost structure of coal production, with average costs remaining stable around $77 per ton from 2018 to mid-2025, despite fluctuations in transportation and compliance costs [71][74]. - Pricing strategies are influenced by market dynamics, with hard coking coal prices expected to stabilize around $160-$180 per ton in 2024 [70][71].

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 晶苑国际（02232.HK） 订单品类扩充，产能效率提升，制造龙头稳健成长 公司是服饰制造行业龙头之一，未来业务规模有望持续扩张。1）公司合作下游龙 头品牌公司，包括优衣库、Levis、GAP、Adidas 等，所生产的产品品类包括休闲 服、运动服及户外服、牛仔服、贴身内衣、毛衣、以及针织布料。2）2024 年公司 收入同比+13%至 24.7 亿美元/净利润同比+23%至 2.0 亿美元，2025H1 收入同 比+12%至 12.3 亿美元/净利润同比+17%至 0.98 亿美元，预计未来效率提升及 订单增长有望持续驱动公司业绩增长。 产能：积极布局一体化产业链，产能持续扩张以匹配订单需求。1）公司国际化布 局较早，目前员工人数约 8 万人，每年合计成衣出货量超过 4.7 亿件，2024 年末 在越南、中国、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、斯里兰卡的员工占比分别达到 54.3%/16.1%/11.3%/11.9%/5.9%。2）2024~2025 年间公司持续补充产能、招 聘员工，预计效率爬坡与提升将在 2026 年继续体现。我们 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 转债高位，如何应对？——转债策略月报 1、《朝闻国盛：存款"流失"的变与不变—央行四季度 货币政策报告 6 大信号》 2026-02-12 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【固定收益】转债高位，如何应对？——转债策略月报——20260212 【社会服务】圣贝拉（02508.HK）-全球领先的家庭护理集团，服务+零 售+AI 三轮驱动——20260212 ◼ 研究视点 【电力设备】天顺风能（002531.SZ）-国内落地海工订单，海外节奏加 快——20260212 作者 | 分析师 金晶 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522030001 | | 邮箱：jinjing3@gszq.com | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 石油石化 | 17.2% | 19.8% | 34.1% | | 建筑材料 | 15.7% | 21.9% | 49.5% | | 综合 | 9.6% | 26.3% | 79. ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 晶苑国际（02232.HK） 订单品类扩充，产能效率提升，制造龙头稳健成长 公司是服饰制造行业龙头之一，未来业务规模有望持续扩张。1）公司合作下游龙 头品牌公司，包括优衣库、Levis、GAP、Adidas 等，所生产的产品品类包括休闲 服、运动服及户外服、牛仔服、贴身内衣、毛衣、以及针织布料。2）2024 年公司 收入同比+13%至 24.7 亿美元/净利润同比+23%至 2.0 亿美元，2025H1 收入同 比+12%至 12.3 亿美元/净利润同比+17%至 0.98 亿美元，预计未来效率提升及 订单增长有望持续驱动公司业绩增长。 产能：积极布局一体化产业链，产能持续扩张以匹配订单需求。1）公司国际化布 局较早，目前员工人数约 8 万人，每年合计成衣出货量超过 4.7 亿件，2024 年末 在越南、中国、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、斯里兰卡的员工占比分别达到 54.3%/16.1%/11.3%/11.9%/5.9%。2）2024~2025 年间公司持续补充产能、招 聘员工，预计效率爬坡与提升将在 2026 年继续体现。我们 ...

全球领先的家庭护理集团，服务+零售+AI 三轮驱动 未来，公司将在持续开店、延长产业链条、发展 AI 方面开拓业务。1） 继续扩展中国及海外月子中心版图。计划至 2030 年内地门店数接近翻倍， 并扩张到全球核心国际城市。2）同时积极拓展产后修复、家庭护理及养 老护理等第二、第三增长曲线，实现客户全生命周期价值挖掘。依托深厚 的品牌影响力、专业人才壁垒和持续创新能力，圣贝拉有望引领行业集中 度提升及高端化转型，持续实现业绩与价值的高成长。3）在 AI 时代率 先寻求改革，瞄准传统母婴照护行业变迁过程中价值万亿的 AI 应用市场。 公司将通过"数据驱动—AI 赋能—服务闭环"的路径，实现服务亿万家庭 的目标，成为全世界领先的家庭护理人工智能集团。当前，公司已完成了 AI 领域内虚拟智能体、平台赋能和实体生态三方面的全面布局。也完成了 由"服务"到"服务+零售"，再到"服务+零售+AI"的转型布局。 投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年经调整净利润 1.20/2.00/2.98 亿 元，同比+185.1%/66.2%/48.9%。公司处于业务快速扩张期，并且已完 成从"服务+零售"到"服务+零售+AI" ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 12 年 月 日 圣贝拉（02508.HK） 全球领先的家庭护理集团，服务+零售+AI 三轮驱动 圣贝拉是全球领先的家庭护理品牌集团。1）核心业务涵盖高端月子中心、 家庭护理服务和女性健康食品，并已率先拓展至新加坡、美国等全球核心 城市。2）截至 2025 上半年全球门店达 113 家，品牌包括定位超高端的 "圣贝拉"、关注女性心理健康的"艾屿"以及主打年轻市场的"小贝 拉"，全面覆盖高净值至中产客户群体。3）公司 25H1 营收 4.50 亿元， 同比增长 25.64%，经调整净利润 0.39 亿元，同比增长 126%。2024 年 总营收 7.99 亿元，同比增长 42.64%；其中主业月子中心营收 6.78 亿元， 占总收入 85.0%，2022-2024 年 CAGR 达 29.05%，24 年主业毛利率 31.8%；家庭护理服务与食品业务亦分别以 CAGR 40.61%和 32.34%的 高速扩张。 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 注：股价为 2026 年 01 月 29 日收盘价 产后护理及修复行业空间大，增长动能向头部 ...