市场的加速器——信用债 ETF 的影响 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【固定收益】市场的加速器——信用债 ETF 的影响——20250710 【海外】禾赛（HSAI.O）-赋能机器，感知世界——20250710 ◼ 研究视点 【电力设备】大金重工（002487.SZ）-业绩超预期，海风盈利提升—— 20250710 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 11 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 作者 | 分析师 张斌梅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680523070007 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangbinmei@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 综合 | 9.8% | 19.7% | 72.9% | | 通信 | 9.0% | 22.7% | 33.3% | | 电力设备 | 8.7% | 15.5% | 31.8% | | 银行 | 8.4% | 20.4% | 36.5% | | 非银金融 | 7.9% | 14.0% | 47.2% ...

我们预计，长期，车载激光雷达 2030 年全球市场规模有望达 500 亿 人民币，机器人激光雷达 2030 年则亦有望达 100 亿人民币。 证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 07 10 年 月 日 禾赛（HSAI.O） 赋能机器，感知世界 禾赛：激光雷达领军者。禾赛成立于 2014 年，十年来专注激光雷达的 研发与制造，专利成果遍布全球。禾赛以高清三维感知技术，赋能更安 全更智能的智能驾驶和机器人应用，历经市场验证，出货量全球领先。 禾赛 2022 年-2024 年各出货约 8 万/22 万/50 万颗激光雷达产品，总 收入约 12.0/18.8/20.8 亿人民币，归母净利约-7.5/-4.8/-1.0 亿元，non- GAAP 归母净利约-2.0/-2.4/+0.14 亿元人民币，已经达到盈利拐点。 从智驾到具身智能，激光雷达需求快速增长。我们认为，需求角度：智 驾平权推动了车载激光雷达的需求快速增长、具身智能的发展也推动 各场景机器人激光雷达的需求增加。供给角度：有效的降本创新，使得 激光雷达成为传感器越来越具性价比的选择。 持续降本创新，巩固龙头地位。禾赛在性能突破 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate market has passed a significant cyclical turning point since 2021, with sales volume and value dropping significantly from their peaks in 2021 to levels comparable to 2010 and 2016 by 2024 [11] - In the first five months of 2025, national commodity housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while sales value fell by 3.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation in a generally low-volume market [11][12] - The supply of new homes continues to shrink, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in new residential supply across 69 cities in the first half of 2025, which is a key factor suppressing transaction recovery [13] Group 2 - The report notes that the sales performance of new homes is significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with the top 20 cities accounting for approximately 68% of sales value in the first half of 2025, reflecting a trend towards concentration in core urban areas [30] - The report indicates that the price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in May 2025, with second-hand home prices also experiencing a decline, suggesting that price stabilization is contingent on a recovery in transaction volumes [24][22] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing market remains active, with transaction volumes at historically high levels, and that the proportion of second-hand transactions is increasing, reaching 69% in the first five months of 2025 [43]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 09 年 月 日 固定收益点评 金价和油价驱动 CPI 上涨 CPI 同比由跌转升、环比降幅收窄，核心 CPI 同比涨幅继续扩大，PPI 同 比降幅扩大、环比降幅不变。6 月 CPI 同比增长 0.1%，较上月增长 0.2 个 百分点，其中翘尾和新涨价分别影响 0%和 0.1%；环比下降 0.1%，降幅 收窄 0.1 个百分点。核心 CPI 同比增长 0.7%，增幅增加 0.1 个百分点， 环比延续持平。PPI 同比下降 3.6%，较上月降幅扩大 0.3 个百分点，其中 翘尾和新涨价的影响分别为-1.59%和-2.0%，环比降幅与上月同为 0.6%。 核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大可能仍然主要来自黄金价格上涨支撑。6 月核心 CPI 同比涨幅继续扩大 0.1 个百分点，其中其他用品和服务分项增长明显， 6 月同比增长 8.1%，较上月增幅扩大 0.8 个百分点，显著高于 CPI 中其 他分项和 CPI 整体增速。其它用品和服务持续高速增长可能继续受到黄金 价格上涨支撑，6 月国内黄金期货价格同比增长 41.3%。按照居民消费结 构测算 20 ...

- The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days' returns for 29 primary industry indices, normalizing the rankings, and averaging them to derive the final RSI value. Industries with RSI > 90% by April are likely to lead the market for the year[11][13][14] - The industry rotation model is based on the "Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness" framework. It includes two sub-models: the industry prosperity model (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowdedness) and the industry trend model (strong trend + low crowdedness, avoiding low prosperity). Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 14.4%, IR of 1.56, and a maximum drawdown of -7.4%[16][18][22] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking. It identifies sectors undergoing a rebound from current or past difficulties. Historical backtesting shows absolute returns of 25.9% in 2024 and excess returns of 14.8% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[28][30][29] - The industry ETF allocation model applies the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework to ETFs. It achieves annualized excess returns of 15.5% against the CSI 800 benchmark, with an IR of 1.81. The model's excess returns were 6.0% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024, and 7.7% in 2025[22][27][16] - The industry prosperity stock selection model combines industry weights from the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework with PB-ROE scoring to select high-value stocks within industries. Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 20.0%, IR of 1.72, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%[23][26][16] - The industry prosperity-trend model achieved excess returns of 3.9% in 2025, while the inventory reversal model showed absolute returns of 1.3% and excess returns of -2.1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[16][28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (京东方 A) [5][7] Core Viewpoints - The company emphasizes that LCD will remain the mainstream display technology in the medium to long term, while the flexible OLED market is rapidly growing. The industry is transitioning from competition based on scale and market share to high-value-driven competition [2] - BOE is advancing its "N Curve" growth strategy, focusing on new business growth areas such as perovskite photovoltaic devices and glass-based packaging, which are expected to support future growth [3] - The company's profitability is expected to improve as it transitions its capital strategy towards value creation, with significant capital expenditures and depreciation peaks anticipated in 2025, leading to a more favorable environment for shareholder returns [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at CNY 215.996 billion, CNY 239.566 billion, and CNY 264.058 billion, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be CNY 9.415 billion, CNY 13.410 billion, and CNY 15.513 billion [5][6] - The report indicates a significant recovery in net profit growth rates, with expected year-on-year increases of 76.9% in 2025 and 42.4% in 2026 [6] Financial Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 15.9 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 1.0, indicating a favorable valuation relative to earnings and book value [6][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 6.6% in 2025 to 9.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the automotive lighting control sector, with a solid foundation and strong product expansion capabilities. It has diversified into four major business areas: lighting control, motor control, energy management, and automotive electronics [1][14]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 29% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 770 million yuan, reflecting a 27% increase [1][3]. - The company is expanding its client base, which includes major global automotive manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, and Ford, enhancing its market position [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a global leader in automotive lighting control, continuously expanding its business boundaries since its inception in 2003 [14]. - It has developed a range of products including LED lighting controllers, atmosphere lights, and motor control systems, integrating into the global high-end automotive electronic supply chain [14][18]. 2. Lighting Control Business - The lighting control segment is robust, with the company supplying major automotive manufacturers and maintaining strong customer loyalty [2][18]. - The company is actively developing new products, including next-generation headlight controllers for Volkswagen and BMW, which are expected to ramp up production in 2025-2026 [2]. 3. New Product Development - The company is expanding into domain controllers and Efuse products, which are expected to drive a second growth curve as the automotive E/E architecture shifts from distributed to centralized systems [3][4]. - The domain control products are projected to account for 86% of the energy management system revenue by 2024 [3][18]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion yuan in 2025, 1.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.5 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 26%, and 22% [3][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22x, 18x, and 15x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][5]. 5. Market Position and Client Base - The company has a strong client base that includes both domestic and international automotive manufacturers, positioning it well for future growth [18][19]. - It has become a tier-one supplier for several major automotive brands, enhancing its competitive advantage in the market [18][19].

Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The construction project growth rate in the basic chemical sector has turned negative, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1] - The fixed asset growth rate is a leading indicator for supply growth, and the current negative trend in construction projects suggests that the chemical sector is approaching a new upward cycle [1][10] - The overall chemical sector requires multiple factors to resonate for the next upward cycle to begin, with oil prices being a key pricing anchor for most chemical products [1] Group 2: AI for Science (AI4S) in Chemical R&D - AI for Science represents a new paradigm in materials science research, with the potential to grow into a trillion-dollar market, significantly enhancing research efficiency through literature learning, AI model calculations, and automated laboratories [2] - The application of AI4S in the pharmaceutical sector is accelerating, with successful models for drug discovery and solid-state research being established [2] - China is positioned to lead in the AI4S market due to its comprehensive chemical manufacturing industry and supply chain, with key companies like 泰控股 and 志特新材 emerging as leaders [2][46] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in New Industries - The AI hardware sector, particularly in light connections, power supplies, and liquid cooling, presents significant investment opportunities, with companies like 东阳光 recommended for attention [3] - The solid-state battery market is expected to undergo transformation driven by demand from emerging sectors, with large-scale commercialization anticipated from 2026 onwards [3] - The robotics sector, particularly with tendon-driven systems, is gaining traction, with significant market potential as the technology matures [3][50] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the chemical industry is currently in a downward trend, with construction project growth rates at historically low levels [9][10] - Demand for chemical products has been affected by various external factors, including trade tensions and geopolitical events, but the overall demand is stabilizing as tariff disturbances recede [13] - The global chemical product sales accounted for 45% of the total market, indicating a strong position in the global supply chain [13] Group 5: Oil Market Impact - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressures, with predictions of excess supply in 2025, leading to a potential decline in oil prices [17][20] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to create uncertainty in oil prices, which directly impacts the profitability of the chemical sector [28][32] - The OPEC+ group is expected to increase production, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the oil market [25]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 08 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q2 产量延续双位数增长，后续有望受益"反内卷"下钢价回升 25Q2 签单金额同比小幅增长，产量延续双位数增长。订单方面，公司 25H1 新签 143.8 亿元，同增 0.2%，Q2 单季新签订单 73.3 亿元，同降 0.9%。考虑到 25Q2 钢价同比明显回落（Q2 热轧板卷均价同降 13.3%）， 公司 25Q2 新签订单对应吨位数增长应有 14%左右，符合预期。订单增长 预计主要系公司今年积极发挥龙头优势，扩大小单签署，市占率稳步提升， 同时积极进军海外市场。产量方面，受签单吨位数增长带动，公司 25H1 实现钢结构产量 236.25 万吨，同增 12.2%，25Q2 单季度产量 131.34 万 吨，同增 10.6%，保持双位数增长符合预期。 大单规模稳定，价格小幅下降。从签单明细来看：1）大额签单方面，公司 25Q2 新签大额订单（订单金额 1 亿元以上或钢结构加工量 1 万吨以上） 18 个，均为包工包料合同，同比增多 2 个；合计金额 16.6 亿元，同比减 少 0.4 亿元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index remained stable, with an increase in the year - on - year growth rate. The bull - bear signal for interest - rate bonds remained unchanged [1][9]. - Different sectors showed various trends, including a decline in the opening rates of major production varieties, an increase in the land transaction premium rate in real - estate sales, a continuous increase in the asphalt production opening rate in infrastructure investment, a decline in the export container freight rate index, a continuous recovery in passenger car retail and wholesale in consumption, a continuous decline in the agricultural product wholesale price index for CPI, an increase in copper and aluminum prices for PPI, a continuous recovery in passenger transport and flights in transportation, a continuous increase in soda ash inventory, a decrease in local government bond net financing and an increase in credit bond net financing in financing [13][25][33][37][52][60][62][74][83][92]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 126.5 points (previous value: 126.4 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value: 5.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The bull - bear signal for interest - rate bonds remained unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.8% (previous value: 4.8%) [1][9]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index was 125.8 (previous value: 125.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The opening rates of major production varieties such as electric furnaces, polyester, and steel tires decreased [1][9][13]. Real - Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index was 44.1 (previous value: 44.2), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged. The land transaction premium rate in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased to 7.8% (previous value: 7.1%) [1][9][25]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index was 119.0 (previous value: 118.8), with a year - on - year increase of 3.0 points (previous value: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The opening rate of the petroleum asphalt device continued to rise to 31.7% (previous value: 31.5%) [1][9][35]. Export - The export high - frequency index was 144.1 (previous value: 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 5.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The CCFI index and RJ/CRB index decreased [1][9][39]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index was 119.5 (previous value: 119.4), with a year - on - year increase of 1.9 points (previous value: 1.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Passenger car retail and wholesale and daily average movie box office continued to recover [1][9][52]. CPI - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast was 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The agricultural product wholesale price index continued to decline, with changes in the average wholesale prices of pork, vegetables, fruits, and white - striped chickens [1][9][60]. PPI - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast was 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). Copper and aluminum prices increased, while the prices of动力煤 and Brent crude oil remained relatively stable [1][9][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index was 128.6 (previous value: 128.4), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Passenger transport and flights continued to recover [2][10][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index was 160.6 (previous value: 160.5), with a year - on - year increase of 9.6 points (previous value: 9.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. Soda ash inventory continued to increase [2][10][83]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index was 230.9 (previous value: 230.3), with a year - on - year increase of 29.4 points (previous value: 29.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. Local government bond net financing decreased, and credit bond net financing increased [2][10][92].