证券研究报告|行业深度 2025 12 03 年 月 日 算力之争，电力为王： 聚焦美国 A I能源革命核心赛道 分析师 张卓然 分析师 鲁昊 执业证书编号：S0680525080005 执业证书编号：S0680525080006 邮箱：zhangzhuoran@gszq.com 邮箱：luhao@gszq.com 分析师 张津铭 分析师 高紫明 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 邮箱：liuliyu@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 汇报框架 目录 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 解决AI电力供需的有效途径 2 投资策略与相关标的 3 风险提示 4 2 1 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 3 • 美国电力供需现状 • 美国数据中心用电增长测算 • 供需错配与电网容量难以支撑用电高增 美国电力供需现状 01 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 图表2：美国各部门用电占比 资料来源： Wind，国盛证券研究所 资 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The upcoming ByteDance Force Conference on December 18 is expected to showcase advancements in cloud infrastructure, large models, and application deployment, potentially leading a new wave of AI enthusiasm [1] - The Doubao large model has seen significant growth, with daily token usage exceeding 30 trillion by September, indicating rapid AI deployment [2] - The Doubao mobile assistant, set to launch on December 1, will enhance user efficiency by automating complex tasks on mobile devices [3] - The Huoshan Cloud business is projected to generate 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and over 20 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 100% [4] - The industry is witnessing rapid advancements in AI models and cost reductions in computing power, which will facilitate broader application deployment and create a commercial AI ecosystem [5] Summary by Sections Doubao Large Model - The Doubao model's daily token usage has increased by over 137 times since its last update, showcasing its growing adoption [2] - The upcoming conference is expected to introduce various innovations in the model's capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [2] Doubao Mobile Assistant - The mobile assistant will have system-level access and the ability to perform tasks like ordering food through automation, significantly improving daily efficiency [3] - The assistant is priced at 3,499 yuan and is currently available in collaboration with ZTE [3] Huoshan Cloud Business - Huoshan Engine aims for substantial revenue growth, targeting 100 billion yuan in 2024 and over 200 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 1 trillion yuan [4] - Computing power is identified as a core resource for supporting model training and application execution [4] Agent Tools and Industry Solutions - The conference will also focus on upgrading agent development tools and enhancing AI deployment capabilities across various industries [4] - The industry is expected to see stronger solution implementation across sectors such as finance, education, and gaming [4] Related Companies - Key companies in the cloud segment include Cambrian, Digital China, and Dongyangguang, while in the edge segment, ZTE and others are highlighted [6]

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 晶华新材（603683.SH） 国际领先的胶粘材料企业，积极布局电子皮肤打开成长空间 胶粘新材料领军企业，下游产品渗入汽车、电子元器件等多个行业。公司 成立于 2006 年，于 2017 年 10 月在上海证券交易所挂牌上市，现已发展 成为集研发、生产、销售于一体的专业生产各类胶粘新材料的高新技术企 业。公司工业胶粘材料以实现规模化、高性价比、差异化、品牌化为发展 路线；电子、功能性薄膜材料以精密涂布技术带动产品品质提升，以嵌入 式研发深入与客户的战略合作；特种纸突破传统造纸技术，持续产品创新， 提升产品功能性，进一步完成进口替代效应；化工材料强化基础研究，实 现产品性能和功能性的双飞跃。 工业胶粘细分龙头，OCA 产品实现技术、客户突破。公司光学胶膜材料包 括 OCA、OLED 支撑膜、折叠屏保护膜、硅凝胶、TPU 等材料，产品应用 广泛，包括光学器件组装、显示器组装、镜头组装等，在智能手机、平板 电脑、智能手表、汽车显示器等终端产品中都有应用。公司工业胶粘材料 产品以美纹胶带为核心，并逐步拓展至和纸胶带、布基胶带等 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 量化点评报告 十二月配置建议：主权 CDS 上行提示风险 资产配置：A 股赔率回归中性。 1）A 股：中等赔率-中高胜率品种。基于 ERP 和 DRP 的标准化数值等权 计算 A 股赔率，截至 11 月底 A 股赔率下行至 0 轴附近，回归中性水平， 近期中国主权 CDS 指标迅速上行，且 10 月信贷大幅不及预期，使得 A 股 胜率下降至 16%。 2）债券：中低赔率-中等胜率品种。近期债券赔率大幅回升，但仍处于-0.9 倍标准差的中低水平；债券胜率指标由于信贷较弱和 CDS 上行回升至- 4%，处于中等胜率水平。 3）美股：极低赔率-中高胜率品种。美股 AIAE 指标当前处于 55%的历史 最高点，位于 2.4 倍标准差水平，回撤风险仍然较高；10 月 FOMC 会议后 公告意外信号转负，另外净流动性指标持续下行，其余指标均为宽松信号， 流动性指数回正至 20%的中高水平。 风格配置：小盘和价值风格优势凸显。小盘风格配置价值提升：小盘风格 近期拥挤度大幅消化，呈现出"强趋势-低拥挤"的特征，配置价值有所修 复；价值低波 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 海外市场 关注资源品和 AI 应用 近期重点事件： 关注 12 月美联储货币政策。美联储预计于 12 月 9 日至 10 日召开下次政策会议，决定是否 连续第三次下调关键联邦基金利率。当地时间 11 月 21 日，美国劳工统计局表示，原定于 12 月 10 日发布的 11 月份 CPI 数据，将推迟到 12 月 18 日。美联储主席鲍威尔和其他联邦公 开市场委员会成员此前表示，数据中断使他们调整货币政策以稳定通胀和就业的工作变得更 加困难。因此也有可能会推迟原定于 12 月 9 日至 10 日的议息会议。 谷歌发布 Gemini 3 模型。当地时间 11 月 18 日，谷歌正式推出 Gemini 3 系列人工智能 （AI）模型，并同步上线 Gemini 3 Pro 预览版。谷歌称，Gemini 3 是迄今为止"最智能"和 "最具事实准确性的"AI 系统。它不仅拥有卓越的推理能力、多模态理解能力和智能体编码 能力，还能将用户创意快速转化为应用程序，在创建软件、整理邮件和分析文档等任务中， 相比前代产品都有显著提升。谷歌同时宣 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [6]. Core Insights - The establishment of local carbon accounting systems is accelerating, driving high demand in the environmental monitoring industry. Policies in Shandong and Hubei provinces are expected to create clear incremental demand for carbon management and environmental monitoring services [1][28]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by historically low interest rates, making high-dividend assets and growth-oriented companies attractive. The report highlights companies benefiting from carbon neutrality, such as high-energy waste management leaders and strong dividend-paying state-owned enterprises [2][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - Shandong Province has released a carbon accounting methodology for public institutions, mandating energy-saving renovations and renewable energy adoption, which will directly benefit environmental monitoring companies like Juguang Technology and Xuedilong [1][21]. - Hubei Province has implemented a stringent energy-saving review and carbon emission evaluation for fixed asset investment projects, enhancing the green threshold for investments and favoring environmental monitoring sectors [28]. Market Performance - The environmental sector performed moderately, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index but underperforming the ChiNext Index. The environmental sector index rose by 1.78%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% [34]. Industry News - New standards for air pollutant emissions from municipal waste incineration have been released in Shanghai, setting comprehensive requirements for existing and new facilities [40]. - Hubei's new regulations require simultaneous energy-saving reviews and carbon emission evaluations for all new, renovated, and expanded projects, significantly raising the bar for fixed asset investments [28]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is noted for its strong growth potential and high dividend yield, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate of 13.0% from 2016 to 2024 [30][33]. - Gaoneng Environment aims to become a leading global environmental service provider, focusing on hazardous waste resource utilization and environmental engineering [32].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 宏观定期 高频半月观—10 月底以来基建实物量持续走弱 每半月，我们基于"供给、需求、价格、库存、交通物流、流动性"6 大 维度，跟踪最新高频的变化，本期为近半月（2025.11.17—11.30）综述。 核心结论：近半月高频变化有三：一是反内卷继续推进、价格上行的信号 持续强化，煤炭、钢铁价格均上涨，高炉开工率及钢材库存下降；二是新 房、二手房销售均季节性回升，但同比降幅均仍阔；三是 10 月底以来基建 实物工作量持续走弱，沥青开工率、水泥发运率均回落。继续提示：近几 个月经济呈现加速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大 会议：12 月上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、预计对 2026 年政策 定调偏积极偏扩张，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要 关注其它 3 类政策：我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率 会降）；稳地产可能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、 结存限额下拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、 谋划新一批重大项 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年铜价展望：宏观与供需平衡共振，牛市有望加速 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后——20251130 【宏观】中央经济工作会议前瞻——20251129 【策略】12 月策略观点与金股推荐——20251130 【策略】一周市场表现与政策事件回顾（11.28 当周）——20251130 【金融工程】风格后续关注高低切——20251130 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值面分数略下降——20251129 【固定收益】年末还有抢跑行情吗？——20251130 【固定收益】月末资金平稳，存单继续大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20251129 【固定收益】如何看待万科商讨展期对债市冲击——20251128 【海外】海外市场—关注资源品和 AI 应用——20251130 【有色金属】2026 年铜价展望：宏观与供需平衡共振，牛市有望加速— —20251130 【纺织服饰】申洲国际（02313.HK）-坚定长期主义，需求边际改善，龙 头优势凸显——20251130 ◼ 研究 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 作者 宏观点评 PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后 事件：2025 年 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（前值 49.0%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（前值 50.1%）。 核心观点：制造业 PMI 已连续 8 个月处于荣枯线下方，本月小幅回升 符合季节性；分项看，供给和外需反弹更多，新出口订单指数明显回 升、主因中美贸易局势短期缓和；服务业 PMI 超季节性回落，主因假 期效应消退、以旧换新政策效果减弱。继续提示：近几个月经济呈现加 速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大会议：12 月 上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、对 2026 年政策定调，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要关注其它 3 类政策： 我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率会降）；稳地产可 能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、结存限额下 拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、谋划新 一批重大项目的"吹风"等。 2、分项看，关注供需端、贸易端、价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the space computing sector [5]. Core Insights - The emergence of space computing is expected to revolutionize data processing capabilities, with companies like Nvidia and Starcloud leading the charge by deploying AI servers in space [1][9]. - Elon Musk predicts that deploying large-scale AI systems in space will be more cost-effective than on Earth due to the availability of free solar energy and efficient cooling methods [2][14]. - Google's "Project Suncatcher" aims to utilize solar energy in space for scalable computing networks, with plans to launch prototype satellites by 2027 [3][18]. - China's launch of the "Body Computing Constellation" marks a significant milestone as the world's first interconnected space computing satellite constellation, expected to achieve a total computing power of 1000 Peta Operations Per Second (POPS) [4][22]. Summary by Sections Space Computing Developments - Nvidia's Starcloud-1 satellite, equipped with H100 GPUs, is set to operate in low Earth orbit, processing data from Earth observation satellites [1][9]. - Starcloud plans to expand its capabilities with the Starcloud-2 mission, which will include more powerful GPUs and aim for a 40 MW data center in space by the early 2030s [11]. Cost Efficiency and Energy Needs - Musk estimates that future AI computing needs could require between 200 to 300 GW of continuous power, highlighting the limitations of terrestrial energy sources [2][14]. - The report emphasizes that the transition to space-based data centers could alleviate the increasing energy and water demands of traditional data centers [10]. Industry Growth and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that as AI computing demands rise and rocket launch costs decrease, significant growth in space computing is anticipated, recommending early investment in related companies such as Putian Technology and China Satellite [24].