证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 03 06 年 月 日 房地产 保障方面，报告在保障和改善民生章节中，提出加强初婚初育家庭住房保 障，支持多子女家庭改善性住房需求。这是中央文件新表述，近年地方频 供给端，继续推进土地收储和收购存量商品房政策。报告提到，因城施策 控增量、去库存、优供给，探索多渠道盘活存量商品房，鼓励收购存量商 品房重点用于保障性住房等。有序推动安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"建 设，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。同关表述基本延续 2025 年，预计今年将在现有政策框架下继续推进。 增持与维持 防风险方面，"白名单"有望成为常态化支持房企融资的基础制度。防风 险近年一直是中央工作重要的关切方面。除了上述在房地产供需方面部署 的工作外，报告提到"进一步发挥（ 保交房'的白名单制度作用，防范债 务违约风险"，在新房销售持续低迷、房企回款持续承压的背景下，房企融 资现金流是保交付的重中之重，我们预计（"白名单"有望成为常态化支持 房企融资的基础制度。此外，报告继续提到有序化解地方政府债务风险、 稳妥化解金融领域风险等。 行业走势 作者 -20% -10% 0% ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 03 06 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 总量务实，结构优先 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】20 字极简解读—2026 年政府工作报告 5 大看点——20260305 【策略研究】科创业绩快报综述——20260305 【固定收益】总量务实，结构优先——基于 2026 年政府工作报告分析— —20260305 ◼ 研究视点 【通信】电芯片 EIC：光通信核心枢纽，国产份额有望提升——20260305 【食品饮料】统一企业中国（00220.HK）-业绩增长稳健，股息优势突出 ——20260305 作者 | 分析师 | 张一鸣 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522070009 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangyiming@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月1 年 | | | 石油石化 | 18.5% | 38.1% | 57.9% | | 综合 | 13.9% | 29.6% | 87.5% | | 煤炭 | 12.2% | ...

电芯片国产份额提升势在必行。在中高速率以上的市场，我国光通信电芯 片自给率极低，下游厂商高度依赖境外进口。根据 ICC 数据，按收入价值 统计，在 25G 速率及以上的光通信电芯片领域，中国厂商仅占全球市场 7%。所以目前高端电芯片仍是中国光通信产业链的"短板"，亟待突破； 同时我们也看到国产替代的空间大，本土企业在成本响应、供应链安全与 客户协同上具备天然优势，有望在这一轮 AI 浪潮中加速份额追赶。 同时，光通信公司涉足电芯片领域的较少，全球整体供应商竞争格局比较 稳定，伴随国产电芯片能力不断提升，以及国内光模块公司份额不断提升， 国产电芯片有望迎来上行周期。 伴随 XPO（LPO/NPO/CPO）技术演进，电芯片价值量有望显著提升。 由于 XPO 方案为了节省功耗，移除了功耗和成本都较高的 DSP 芯片，而 原本由 DSP 承担的信号均衡/补偿等工作要由其他部分承担，包括 SerDes、 TIA、Driver 等，例如 TIA 需要集成 CTLE（（续时时间性均均衡）发发射端 信号进行预补偿。所以原本被 DSP 占据的价值空间也被迁移到这些方向。 其中 TIA+Driver 这些电芯片的绝发价值量及其在 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 05 年 月 日 统一企业中国（00220.HK） 业绩增长稳健，股息优势突出 事件：公司发布 2025 年年报，2025 年公司实现营业收入 317.14 亿元， 同比+4.6%，归母净利润 20.50 亿元，同比+10.9%。其中 2025H2 实现 营收 146.28 亿元，同比-1.7%，归母净利润 7.64 亿元，同比-13.6%。公 司 2025 年现金分红 20.5 亿，分红比例 100.01%。 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 注：股价为 2026 年 03 月 04 日收盘价 | 买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 股票信息 | | | 行业 | 饮料乳品 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 03 月 04 日收盘价（港元） | 7.98 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 34,468.29 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4,319.33 | | 其中自由流通股（%） | 100.00 | | 30 日日均成交量（百万股） | 6.31 | 股价走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The optical communication chip is identified as the core engine for optical interconnection, with domestic market share expected to increase significantly due to the low self-sufficiency rate in high-speed optical communication chips in China, currently only 7% in the 25G and above segment [1][2] - The report highlights the transition from module assembly to chip definition in the optical communication industry, emphasizing the importance of TIA and Driver chips in enhancing signal speed and reducing power consumption [1] - The evolution of XPO technology is projected to significantly increase the value of optical communication chips, as it removes the need for high-cost DSP chips, redistributing value to TIA and Driver components [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The optical communication chip market is characterized by a stable global supplier competition landscape, with domestic chip capabilities expected to rise alongside the increasing market share of local optical module companies [2] Technological Advancements - The integration of advanced packaging and system architecture is set to open up new opportunities in optical interconnection, facilitating a shift from mid-range to chip-level interconnection markets [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies involved in optical communication chip design and manufacturing, including companies like 优迅股份, 中晟微电子, MACOM, Semtech, MaxLinear, and 玏芯科技 for design, and Tower and 中芯国际 for manufacturing [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth with a 2025 revenue of 31.714 billion RMB, up 4.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.050 billion RMB, up 10.9% year-on-year. The second half of 2025 saw a slight decline in revenue and net profit [1][3] - The food segment achieved a revenue of 10.494 billion RMB, a 5.0% increase year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 40.1% to 379 million RMB, indicating a focus on health and quality [1] - The beverage segment reported a revenue of 19.4 billion RMB, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, with notable performance in tea and milk tea categories [2] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend policy, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 of 2.200 billion RMB, 2.361 billion RMB, and 2.522 billion RMB, respectively [3] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 33.20%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year, with the beverage segment achieving a gross margin of 37.8% [2] - The company’s net profit margin reached 6.46%, up 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, with a reduction in selling and administrative expense ratios [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is 0.51 RMB, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Dechang Motor Holdings (00179.HK)**: "Buy" rating [8] - **H&H International Holdings (01112.HK)**: "Buy" rating [11] - **Hesai (HSAI.O)**: "Buy" rating [12] - **Hundsun Technologies (600570.SH)**: "Buy" rating [13] - **Jiemei Technology (002859.SZ)**: "Buy" rating [14] 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro Reports - **PMI Report**: The current economy is in a state of "weak reality" with large downward pressure due to insufficient domestic demand and weak confidence. The 2026 GDP target is expected to be 4.5 - 5%, indicating proactive policies. Short - term attention should be paid to policy, data, and external factors, and the economic momentum and credit expansion in Q2 are also crucial [2] - **RMB Exchange Rate Report**: The central bank's exchange - rate regulation is in the liquidity management stage with sufficient policy tools. The probability of direct intervention is low. The RMB exchange - rate increase is mainly due to corporate centralized foreign exchange settlement, and the medium - term exchange rate depends on fundamentals and the US dollar index. The 2026 USD/CNY exchange - rate central value is likely to be between 6.8 - 7.1 [3] Financial Engineering Report - **March Allocation Suggestion**: The economic six - cycle model has retreated to stage 6 of monetary expansion, but the recent decline may be a short - term disturbance. PPI has been rising since July last year, which is beneficial for the cycle sector. The cycle sector's景气指数 has entered the expansion range, and seven industries, mainly pro - cyclical, have shown RS>90 signals and should be focused on [4] Company - Specific Reports - **Dechang Motor Holdings**: The company has a global layout with dual -主业 of automotive and industrial products. It is前瞻ively positioned in the robot and AIDC liquid - cooling markets. It is expected to benefit from the growth of the automotive motor market and the development of new businesses. The归母净利润 from 2026 - 2028 is estimated to grow year - on - year [8] - **H&H International Holdings**: The company's performance has reached an inflection point and is continuously improving. ANC, BNC, and PNC businesses have shown growth. The company is on the path of recovery, and its performance and valuation are expected to resonate [11] - **Hesai**: The company's lidar delivery volume in 2025 exceeded 1.6 million units. It leads in multiple application scenarios such as ADAS, lawn mower robots, and mapping. The shipment volume, revenue, and profit from 2025 - 2027 are expected to increase [12] - **Hundsun Technologies**: The company's 2025 annual report performance met expectations. With a focus on core business and continuous cost control, it is expected to accumulate growth momentum. The revenue and profit from 2025 - 2027 are estimated [13] - **Jiemei Technology**: The company plans to acquire 100% of the equity of Changsha Aifusi, which is expected to achieve synergies with its semiconductor business. The demand for passive components is rising, and the company's product price increase is imminent. The revenue and profit from 2025 - 2027 are expected to grow [14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Performance - **Top Five Industries**: The top five industries in terms of performance include Petroleum & Petrochemicals (1 - month: 19.0%, 3 - month: 41.3%, 1 - year: 59.8%), Comprehensive (1 - month: 12.6%, 3 - month: 31.7%, 1 - year: 85.6%), Coal (1 - month: 9.9%, 3 - month: 15.5%, 1 - year: 33.4%), Steel (1 - month: 6.2%, 3 - month: 16.0%, 1 - year: 33.2%), and Utilities (1 - month: 5.3%, 3 - month: 6.9%, 1 - year: 18.4%) [1] - **Bottom Five Industries**: The bottom five industries are Media (- 11.1% in 1 - month, 4.5% in 3 - month, 21.6% in 1 - year), Commerce & Retail (- 9.2% in 1 - month, - 3.6% in 3 - month, 4.4% in 1 - year), Food & Beverage (- 8.2% in 1 - month, - 6.4% in 3 - month, - 8.6% in 1 - year), Non - Banking Finance (- 7.1% in 1 - month, - 0.7% in 3 - month, 7.3% in 1 - year), and Real Estate (- 7.1% in 1 - month, - 3.5% in 3 - month, 0.9% in 1 - year) [1] Company - Specific Analysis Dechang Motor Holdings (00179.HK) - **Business Layout**: It has a "4 - continent, 20 - country" global layout, focusing on automotive and industrial products, mainly micro - motors. It is also involved in the robot and AIDC liquid - cooling markets [6] - **Market Opportunities**: The automotive motor market is growing due to technological updates. The company has a high market share in micro - motors, strong competitiveness in chassis motors and thermal management motors. The AIDC liquid - cooling and humanoid robot markets also have great potential [7][8] - **Financial Forecast**: The estimated归母净利润 for 2026 - 2028 is 2.8/3.0/3.3 billion US dollars, with year - on - year growth of 8%/6%/9% [8] H&H International Holdings (01112.HK) - **Business Performance**: In 2025, the company's revenue had low - double - digit growth. ANC, BNC, and PNC businesses all showed growth, and the adjusted profit indicators also improved [10][11] - **Financial Forecast**: The expected net profit for 2025 - 2027 is 4.2/5.8/7.1 billion yuan, with year - on - year growth of 886.3%/38.2%/22.3% [11] Hesai (HSAI.O) - **Business Performance**: In 2025, the lidar delivery volume exceeded 1.6 million units, with 1.4 million ADAS lidar units and over 200,000 units in the robot category. The ATX product's first - year delivery exceeded 1 million units [11] - **Financial Forecast**: The estimated lidar shipment volume from 2025 - 2027 is about 1.62/2.5/3.41 million units, revenue is about 3.09/4.51/5.92 billion yuan, GAAP归母净利润 is about 0.4/0.62/0.99 billion yuan, and non - GAAP归母净利润 is about 0.53/0.8/1.23 billion yuan [12] Hundsun Technologies (600570.SH) - **Business Performance**: In 2025, the estimated归属上市公司股东的净利润 was 1.229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.83%, and the estimated扣非后归母净利润 was 1.005 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.45% [12] - **Financial Forecast**: The expected revenue from 2025 - 2027 is 5.786/6.205/6.898 billion yuan, and the归母净利润 is 1.229/1.398/1.582 billion yuan [13] Jiemei Technology (002859.SZ) - **Business Layout**: The company plans to acquire 100% of Changsha Aifusi, which is expected to achieve synergies with its semiconductor business. The demand for passive components is rising, and product price increases are expected [13][14] - **Financial Forecast**: The expected total revenue from 2025 - 2027 is 2.151/2.645/3.207 billion yuan, with year - on - year growth of 18.4%/23.0%/21.3%, and the expected归母净利润 is 0.254/0.362/0.526 billion yuan, with year - on - year growth of 25.7%/42.6%/45.1% [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 34 USD for HSAI.O and 266 HKD for 2525.HK, corresponding to a 27x P/E for 2027 estimates [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to deliver over 1.6 million laser radars in 2025, with approximately 1.4 million units for ADAS and over 200,000 units for robotics [1]. - The company holds a leading market share of 40.94% in the front-facing main laser radar segment for passenger vehicles in China, maintaining its position as the industry leader [1]. - The company has also achieved the highest shipment volume for 3D laser radars in the lawn mower sector, with over 200,000 units delivered since the product launch [1]. - The JT128 laser radar has been utilized in the UTree robots showcased at the Spring Festival Gala, providing precise environmental perception capabilities [2]. - The JT64P laser radar is integrated into a new generation of handheld laser scanners for high-precision surveying, reinforcing the company's leadership in high-precision modeling [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.877 billion CNY in 2023 to 5.915 billion CNY in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56% in 2023 and 31% in 2027 [4][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a GAAP net profit of approximately 4.0 million CNY in 2025, increasing to 9.9 million CNY by 2027 [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to rise from 5.3 million CNY in 2025 to 12.3 million CNY in 2027 [3]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in laser radar shipments, from 22,000 units in 2023 to 341,000 units in 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for H&H International Holdings (01112.HK) [4][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a performance turnaround with continuous operational improvement, highlighted by a low double-digit revenue growth in 2025 and a strong double-digit growth in infant nutrition and care products [1][4] - Adjusted comparable EBITDA is expected to grow by 2% to 6% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit growth forecast of 15% to 25% [1][4] Summary by Relevant Sections ANC (Adult Nutrition Category) - The company has increased its market share in mainland China, achieving low double-digit growth in 2025, while other expanding markets saw strong double-digit growth [2] - Innovative product categories such as heart health and anti-aging are experiencing robust growth, with Swisse Plus and Little Swisse continuing to expand [2] - The e-commerce market for health products in China is projected to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year, with Swisse outperforming the industry growth rate [2] BNC (Baby Nutrition Category) - The infant nutrition and care segment achieved strong double-digit growth, particularly in infant formula, which significantly outpaced the industry growth rate in mainland China [3] - The company’s strategy of expanding customer acquisition through dedicated infant stores and social media platforms has shown significant results [3] - The infant probiotic and nutritional supplements segment saw low single-digit growth, driven by new product launches and accelerated growth in dedicated stores and online channels [3] PNC (Pet Nutrition Category) - The pet nutrition and care segment achieved high single-digit growth in 2025, with expectations for accelerated growth following product structure optimization and channel adjustments [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 422 million, 584 million, and 714 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 886.3%, 38.2%, and 22.3% [4][6] - The expected adjusted net profit for 2025 is between 620 million and 680 million RMB, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 12-13x [4]

- The "Six-Cycle Model" identifies economic phases using the three-month difference in medium- and long-term loan pulses (TTM YoY). As of January, the model entered Phase 6, "Monetary Expansion," indicating a defensive allocation strategy[7][11] - The "Analyst Industry Prosperity Index" evaluates industry performance expectations. The index shows that the cyclical and growth sectors are in an expansion phase, with the cyclical sector entering this phase in January 2025[12][13] - The "Industry Relative Strength Index (RS)" ranks industries based on cross-sectional returns. Industries with RS > 90% by April are likely to lead the market. As of February 2026, seven industries, including non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, showed RS > 90% signals[15][16] - The "Style Factor Analysis" evaluates factors like small-cap, value, quality, and growth based on three metrics: odds, trend, and crowding. Small-cap and value factors scored highest, while growth and quality factors showed weaker trends[30][32][36][39] - The "Industry Configuration Model" uses two approaches: the "Industry Prosperity Model" (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowding) and the "Industry Trend Model" (strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low prosperity). March recommendations include cyclical sectors like chemicals and coal[46][48][50] - The "Inventory Cycle Reversal Model" identifies industries in recovery phases with low inventory pressure. Current recommendations include oil services, coal chemicals, and rare metals. Historical backtests show strong absolute and excess returns[55][56][57] - The "Odds and Win Rate Strategies" include three models: "Odds-Enhanced," "Win Rate-Enhanced," and "Odds + Win Rate." These models optimize asset allocation based on risk budgets. Historical performance shows annualized returns of 6.7%-7.9% with low drawdowns[58][61][64]