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收假归来,吹响进攻号角
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-24 05:10
因此,我们早前推出"海外 3 小煤"概念,指出直接在海外销售的煤企将更为受 益。重点关注在海外布局的煤炭公司:中国秦发(布局印尼)、力量发展(布局南 非)、兖煤澳大利亚(布局澳大利亚)。除此之外,兖煤澳大利亚的控股股东兖矿 能源亦应重点关注。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 23 年 月 日 煤炭开采 收假归来,吹响进攻号角 行情回顾(2026.2.9~2026.2.13): 中信煤炭指数 3940.86 点,上涨 1.86%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.5pct,位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 春节假期期间,国内除部分大型煤矿保持正常生产外,多数民营煤矿均停产放假, 煤炭市场接近休眠状态。但在印尼减产消息持续扰动影响下,海外煤价仍延续涨 势,与国内价格倒挂幅度进一步扩大。在此背景下,收假归来,我们认为部分终 端将转向内贸煤采购,带动国内价格快速上行。我们仍维持节前观点,正如节前 密集公开会议所述,强烈看好节后国内煤炭市场表现。 此外,去年底至今的几乎每一篇报告,我们均在强调今年煤炭市场重点关注的地 方在于海外,而非国内。一旦海外市场出现"黑天鹅"事件,煤价想象空间才 ...
英科医疗(300677):全球丁腈手套龙头周期复苏与进阶之路:百尺竿头,更进一步
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-24 02:37
证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 24 年 月 日 英科医疗(300677.SZ) 百尺竿头,更进一步——全球丁腈手套龙头周期复苏与进阶之路 公司:公司专注一次性手套的生产和销售,在近年全球公共卫生事件中已 积累大量资金并用于规模化扩产。2019 年至 2025H1,公司丁腈手套年化 产能从 190 亿只增长至 560 亿只,已成为全球丁腈手套龙头。 行业:丁腈手套综合性能优异,需求持续景气。丁腈手套过敏率低,综合 性能表现优异,可应用于医疗、工业、民用等各类使用场景,渗透率持续 提升。据马来西亚丁腈手套龙头贺特佳,25 年全球橡胶手套需求约 3250- 3750 亿只,未来有望保持大单位数增长趋势。从供需结构来看,欧美需求 占比约 60%;供给则集中在中国和马来西亚,各占比 30%-40%。我们预 计在需求稳健增长、供给集中度提升的背景下,行业竞争将进一步回归成 本与效率。 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 英科医疗 沪深300 核心壁垒:技术领先+原材料自供/燃煤优势+规模效应,成本优势突 ...
节后资金无需过虑
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-24 01:30
证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 24 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 节后资金无需过虑 【中小盘】3D 打印—定义商业航天可回收火箭的"新制造范式"—— 20260222 【中小盘】激光通信—商业航天的新一代"核心基建"——20260221 【中小盘】商业航天产业趋势持续加速,分化中去伪存真——20260219 【银行】开门红信贷温和,存款结构分化——20260218 【中小盘】越南批准 SpaceX 星链服务,卫星互联网竞争加码—— 20260218 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】有喜有忧—春节大事 8 看点——20260223 【宏观】特朗普关税被判违宪,影响几何?——20260222 【金融工程】反弹随时展开——20260223 【固定收益】债市的支撑——来自银行的角度——20260223 【固定收益】节后资金无需过虑——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20260222 【固定收益】春节期间的关注点——20260222 【交通运输】高股息再入配置区间,静待政策催化 ——20260223 【食品饮料】宝立食品(603170.SH)-复调创新 +C 端轻烹,宝立领航 "食"尚——2026 ...
宝立食品:复调创新+C端轻烹,宝立领航“食”尚-20260224
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-24 01:20
证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 23 年 月 日 宝立食品(603170.SH) 复调创新+C 端轻烹,宝立领航"食"尚 深耕复调二十余载,从单品输出到综合赋能。1)发展历史:宝立食品作 为西式复调龙头,2001 年成立以来,发展历程清晰划分为单一品类期(2 001-2007 年)、多元扩张期(2008-2017 年)、业务创新期(2018 年-至 今)三大发展阶段。公司通过收购厨房阿芬将空刻品牌纳入麾下,切入 C 端轻烹赛道,同时积极拓展除百胜以外的头部 B 端客户,现已成为主营复 合调味料、轻烹解决方案、饮品甜点配料三大业务的复调领军企业。2)管 理情况:公司为民营控股企业,马驹等一致行动人通过臻品致信、宝钰投 资实现稳定控股;管理团队兼具行业深度与跨界经验,为战略执行与创新 突破提供坚实保障。3)财务表现:营收利润稳步增长,盈利质量持续优 化,公司自 2022 年上市以来,2022-2024 年营收 CAGR 为 14.09%,202 5Q1-3 公司实现营业收入 21.33 亿元,同比+10.50%,归母净利润 1.92 亿元,同比+10.59%,整体业绩增长 ...
春节大事8看点:有喜有忧
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-24 00:54
证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 23 年 月 日 宏观专题 有喜有忧—春节大事 8 看点 春节假期、大事不少,整体有喜有忧、喜大于忧;继续提示,大环境依 旧是市场的好朋友,乐观点、乘势而上、调整就是机会:全球看,特朗 普 IEEPA 关税被判违宪、美伊谈判取得进展、高市早苗当选、美国 2025 年 Q4GDP 低于预期等;国内看,经济数据表现分化,偏差的是信贷低 于预期、新房销售同比降幅走阔、假期电影票房回落等,偏好的是物价 边际改善、假期出行旅游活跃、二手房销售好转、社融等,经济"开门 红"成色仍有待观察;政策看,关注总书记求是发文,多部门部署强产 业,中美元首通话,地方两会收官;资产看,风险偏好提振、全球股市 多数上涨,美元指数上涨、人民币汇率逆势走强。 看点 1:全球政经及地缘政治密集变化,聚焦四大方面:美伊谈判、关 税违宪、WTO 中国方案、高市早苗当选。1)美伊谈判取得进展,但 关键议题分歧不小,短期存在军事冲突升级可能,中期看美伊根本分歧 预计较难化解。2)特朗普 IEEPA 关税被判违宪,对等关税和芬太尼关税 将中止征收,特朗普新增 122 关税作为过渡措施 ...
太空算力升维之战:从地面“内卷”到太空“新战场”
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-24 00:45
证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 23 年 月 日 中小盘 太空算力升维之战—从地面"内卷"到太空"新战场" 一、太空圈地:中国占位算力升维新赛道 当全球 AI 竞赛将地面算力与能源消耗推向极限,一片拥有无限太阳能 与天然超低温散热环境的"算力净土"—近地轨道,正成为科技巨头与 国家力量竞相角逐的新疆域。这不仅是算力基础设施的物理位置迁移, 更是对数字时代底层架构的一次升维重构。中国凭借在星座规模化组 网、星间激光通信与商业化闭环上的先发优势,已在这场关乎未来数 字主权的"太空圈地运动"中占据身位,相关产业链正迎来从技术验证 到规模商用的历史性机遇。 二、升维动力:为何非要"送算力上天"? 将沉重的服务器搬到数百公里高的太空,并非炫技,而是破解地面算 力发展三大核心瓶颈的必然选择。 (一)能源成本"归零"想象:地面数据中心是"电老虎",其中近 40% 的电力消耗于散热系统。太空提供了近乎无限的太阳能(24 小时无遮 挡)和接近绝对零度的真空环境,相当于把电费和空调费两大成本"外 包"给了宇宙,这有望省去地面 70%以上的相关成本。 (二)传输效率的"时空革命":传统卫星如同 ...
高速公路2026年投资策略:高股息再入配置区间,静待政策催化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-23 10:45
证券研究报告 | 行业策略 2026 02 23 年 月 日 高速公路 2026年投资策略: 高股息再入配置区间,静待政策催化 分析师:罗月江 分析师:杨振华 执业证书编号:S0680525030001 执业证书编号:S0680525040001 邮箱:luoyuejiang@gszq.com 邮箱:yangzhenhua@gszq.com 分析师:姚云川 研究助理:谭伊珊 执业证书编号:S0680525120003 执业证书编号:S0680125110005 邮箱:yaoyunchuan@gszq.com 邮箱:tanyishan@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 高速公路行业一般由国资主导,形成区域垄断。在22家高速公路上市公司中,央国企占比达95%,77%的公司有省、市交投集团或省、市高速公路 集团的股东背景。从区域格局来看,多数省份仅有一家高速公路上市平台;仅广东、湖南两省较为特殊,分别有4个与2个上市公司。此外,每条高 速公路在其辐射区域内具有唯一性,车流难以被完全替代,因此具有区域垄断性。 高速公路行业与民生息息相关,具有公共事业属性。 公路发展规划、投资建设、收费期限、收费标准和收 费站设置 ...
纺织服饰周专题:服饰制造商1月营收公布,越南相关出口继续稳健增长
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-23 10:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and Huayi Group, among others [5][10][31]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a steady growth in exports from Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, which continues to outperform China in this regard [2][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders for apparel manufacturing companies in 2026, with an expectation of improved profitability quality compared to previous periods [1][22]. - The sportswear segment is expected to show resilience and long-term growth potential, with companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports being highlighted for their strong inventory management and marketing strategies [3][28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Several apparel manufacturers reported their January 2026 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -1.8%, +7.6%, and +0.6% respectively [1][13][14]. - The overall performance of apparel manufacturing shipments is expected to be flat in Q4 2025, with short-term profit margins under pressure due to order fluctuations [1][22]. Industry Export Performance - In 2025, China's apparel and accessories export value is projected to be $151.2 billion, down 5.0% year-on-year, while textile yarns and fabrics are expected to see a slight increase of 0.5% [2][21]. - Vietnam's textile exports in January 2026 reached $3.25 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, and footwear exports were $2.05 billion, up 7.8% [2][21]. Company Recommendations - Li Ning is recommended due to its anticipated brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with expected net profit growth of 5.8% in 2026 [3][28]. - Anta Sports is highlighted for its excellent operational capabilities, with a projected net profit increase of 6.4% in 2026 [3][28]. - Shenzhou International is recommended for its cost-effective valuation and expected stable growth in revenue and profit in 2026 [30][31]. Inventory and Order Trends - The industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for steady improvement in downstream orders [30]. - Key brands are expected to see a recovery in orders, with some brands outperforming market expectations [22][24]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that brand clients are expected to adopt a more flexible ordering rhythm due to cautious economic outlooks, which may lead to differentiated performance among brands [22][27]. - The overall competitive landscape is expected to optimize in the medium to long term, benefiting integrated and internationalized manufacturers [27].
如何理解社融与货币增速背离
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-14 11:49
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The credit performance at the beginning of the year was lackluster, and government bonds drove the growth of social financing. In the context of the front - loaded government bond issuance and the weak recovery of corporate medium - and long - term loans, the growth rate of social financing in the first half of 2026 may continue a gentle downward trend [1][6][10] - The increase in the M1 growth rate in January 2026 was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor, and the divergence between the M2 growth rate and the social financing growth rate might be affected by multiple factors such as the increase in the scale of foreign exchange settlement and the low base of non - bank deposits [2][12][16] - The large increase in fiscal deposits led to a withdrawal of funds, and the improvement in liquidity might be due to weak credit demand or the central bank's use of structural tools. Under the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival [3][19][21][23] 3. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In January 2026, the new credit was 4.71 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 trillion yuan. Considering the Spring Festival factor, credit demand was even weaker. Corporate credit increased by 44,500 yuan billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3,300 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 31,800 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2,800 billion yuan. Resident medium - and long - term loans increased by 346.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 146.6 billion yuan, mainly dragged down by the weak real estate market [1][6] Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 165.4 billion yuan. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new scale of government bonds in January 2026 was 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan. In the first half of 2026, the growth rate of social financing may continue to decline gently [1][10] M1 and M2 Growth Rate Situation - In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 4.9%, mainly due to the Spring Festival misalignment factor, which pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in January by about 1.3 percentage points [2][12][14] - From November last year to January this year, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 increased by 1.0 percentage point to 9.0%, while the growth rate of the social financing stock slowed down by 0.3 percentage points to 8.2%. The increase in the foreign exchange settlement ratio and the large year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits might be the reasons for the divergence between the two [2][16] Liquidity Situation - The increase in foreign exchange settlement did not form liquidity injection, and the large increase in fiscal deposits in January led to a withdrawal of liquidity. However, the liquidity was actually very loose in January. One reason was the weak credit demand, and the other was the possible use of structural tools by the central bank [3][19][21] Bond Market Outlook - Currently, social financing is weak. Under the expectation of the use of aggregate monetary tools and loose money, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival, with short - term interest rates likely to decline further, and the dumbbell strategy on the curve is relatively more advantageous [3][23]
美国1月就业强、通胀弱的背后
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-14 11:46
Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[7] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[7] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the overall CPI month-on-month increase was only 0.2%[3][4] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4][6] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising before declining, and bond yields fluctuating[9] - After the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 Federal Reserve chair transition, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12] - The market currently anticipates approximately 2.5 rate cuts for 2026, aligning with economic fundamentals but potentially underestimating challenges to the Fed's independence[12]