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兔宝宝(002043):定制化趋势下的全方位变革,新动能助力新成长
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-30 07:27
证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 01 30 年 月 日 兔宝宝(002043.SZ) 定制化趋势下的全方位变革,新动能助力新成长 人造板行业已进入成熟期,市场规模庞大,OEM 资源丰富,但核心品牌 稀缺。2024 年我国人造板消费量达 3.3 亿立方米,市场规模约 7253 亿 元,其中据我们测算用于家具制造的人造板市场规模约 2500 亿元。人造 板产业总体已步入平稳发展阶段,刨花板受益于定制家具行业的快速发 展,细分品种仍存结构性增长机会。由于全国各地对木材材质偏好不一、 板材存经济运输半径等原因,我国人造板产业长期呈现高度分散的格局特 征,截至 2024 年底从业企业数量仍超 8600 家,OEM 资源丰富。但知名 品牌较为稀缺,兔宝宝作为业内头部,2024年板材AB类合计销售额126.58 亿元,占人造板整体市场规模的 1.75%,占家具板材市场规模的 5.03%, 后续受益于板材消费群体 B 端化趋势,份额或加速趋向头部品牌。 稳抓板材使用痛点,环保品牌理念深入人心。衡量板材健康环保程度的最 核心指标为甲醛释放量,而人造板及其制品又占到室内甲醛释放来源的绝 对大头 ...
保健品行业:AI赋能,开启精准营养新时代
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-30 07:14
保健品行业:AI 赋能,开启精准营养新时代 健康领域 AI 应用加速普及,驱动保健品精准、高效发展。2025 年 12 月 蚂蚁集团将旗下 AI 健康应用 AQ 品牌升级为"蚂蚁阿福",帮助用户管理 自身和家人健康;2026 年 1 月 OpenAI 宣布推出""ChatGPT 健康",可通 过用户数据和近期检查结果获取治疗、饮食、运动等相关建议。我们预计 未来 AI 在营养健康领域的应用或加速普及,为消费者提供个性化、精准 营养方案。目前 AI 技术对保健品行业的赋能包括:1)原料发现与筛选优 化;2)智能化配方设计;3)市场洞察与需求预测、精准营销与用户粘性 提升;4)加速功效验证与合规等。 仙乐健康:AI 助力研发、市场洞察多环节,前瞻布局""精准营养"赛道。 2025 年 2 月公司接入 DeepSeek 大模型;7 月公司与大模型公司记忆张量 签署战略合作协议,打造 AI 驱动的产业大模型底座及智能应用矩阵,包 括智能配方生成引擎、全球法规智能中枢和市场需求洞察系统等。在消费 者端,公司推出 AI 营养师,利用 AI 技术赋能个性化营养,实现从""千人 一面"到""千人千面 的主动健康管理 " ,为 ...
保健品行业:益生菌高成长,AKK迎风口
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-30 00:50
仙乐健康:自研菌株 AKK ONE 获 GRAS 认证,蛋白含量及有益菌数量 更高。2025 年 5 月公司首个自主益生菌 AKK ONE 获得美国 GRAS 认证, 加速布局体重管理、代谢健康及抗衰等高增长市场。AKK ONE 核心成分 Amuc_1100 蛋白含量较常规 AKK 菌株高 50%,P9 蛋白含量高 32%,并 通过调节肠道菌群平衡使有益菌数量提升约 1.5 倍,强化体重管理有效性。 此外 6 月公司发布 EverBio 益生菌技术平台,确保菌株从原料入库到消费 终端的活性稳定留存,解决市场菌株滥竽充数、高添加低存活、实际体验 欠佳等问题,丰富多功效、多剂型的益生菌产品矩阵。 食品饮料 保健品行业:益生菌高成长,AKK 迎风口 益生菌行业:双位数高成长,强功效、复配等驱动均价提升。据功能食品 圈数据,益生菌行业 2023-2025 年复合增速 14.2%,行业保持高成长,其 中均价复合增速 11.3%,销量复合增速 2.4%,以价增驱动为主,我们预 计为细分强功能、复配产品等高增长拉动。分品牌来看,精准切中消费者 痛点的国货品牌如 Wonderlab、呜咔实验室等品牌份额显著提升。产品端, 睡 ...
2026年度策略:锚定AI未来,共启科技新篇
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-30 00:50
证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 29 年 月 日 计算机 2026 年度策略:锚定 AI 未来,共启科技新篇 金融科技:新工具+新货币,重塑金融新范式。1)新工具:牛市先锋,优 选炒股软件。2026 年全球流动性合理充裕,国内保持适度宽松基调;同 时,险资兜住下行风险,存款搬家也有望成为重要增量。2026 年我们看好 指数继续上攻,炒股软件是牛市先锋,成交活跃下选择肌肉记忆票,牛市 有望持续受益,建议关注同花顺、东方财富、九方智投、指南针等。2)新 货币:数字人民币与人民币国际化双轮驱动。数字人民币 2.0 在 1 月 1 日 正式实施,从 M0 到 M1 的货币属性跃迁。同时,人民币国际化持续推进, 《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则》将自 2026 年 2 月 1 日起施行,加大拓 展 CIPS 网络力度是工作重点。数字人民币建议关注收单方、清算机构以 及银行做数币支付系统厂商,如新大陆、新国都、拉卡拉等;人民币国际 化核心受益方包括 CIPS 相关厂商。 AI 应用:C 端看巨头起舞,B 端是最后一公里的赛跑。1)在即将到来的 2026,模型端的进步仍然值得期待:采用 s ...
一文拆解金星啤酒招股书:“金”酿升级,成长新“星”
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 11:25
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry positively, highlighting the growth potential of the craft beer segment and the leading position of the company in this market. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the Chinese craft beer market, benefiting from the expansion of the craft beer segment and innovative product offerings. It has shown significant revenue and profit growth, with a retail revenue CAGR of 23.7% from 2022 to 2024, and a remarkable increase in net profit by 928% year-on-year in 2024 [9][20]. Company Overview - The company, established in 1982, has evolved into a leading brand in the Chinese craft beer sector, with a diverse product portfolio that includes lager and wheat beers, as well as innovative tea-flavored craft beers [9][10]. - As of Q1-Q3 2025, the company ranked eighth in the Chinese beer industry and fifth among domestic brands, while being the third largest craft beer company in China [9]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased from 3.56 billion to 7.3 billion yuan from 2023 to 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 104.87%. For Q1-Q3 2025, revenue further surged to 11.1 billion yuan, marking a 191.16% increase year-on-year [20][23]. - Net profit rose from 0.12 billion to 1.25 billion yuan during the same period, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 1095.84% in Q1-Q3 2025, reaching 3.05 billion yuan [20][23]. Business Performance - The company focuses on the craft beer segment, with a product matrix that includes traditional and innovative offerings. The craft beer segment accounted for 78.1% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2331.97% [38][42]. - Traditional beer categories, such as the 1982 raw beer and new generation beer, have shown declining performance, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards craft beers [42]. Distribution Channels - The company primarily relies on offline distribution, which accounted for 81% of total revenue in 2024. The online direct sales channel has also seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2172.17% in 2024 [49]. - The company has expanded its distribution network across various regions, with a focus on increasing its presence in the central and southern regions of China [49]. Future Strategy - The company plans to diversify its product offerings under the "Blue Horse" brand, introducing new products such as rice wine and non-alcoholic tea beer to capture a broader market [71]. - Marketing efforts will focus on enhancing brand visibility through collaborations with influencers and targeted campaigns on social media platforms [71]. Industry Situation - The overall beer market in China is expanding, with a projected market size growth from 604.3 billion yuan in 2019 to 734.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 4.0% [77]. - The craft beer segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 38.4% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a strong consumer shift towards premium and innovative beer products [77][78].
美联储1月议息会议点评:降息暂歇,博弈未止
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 04:00
Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]
格兰仕赋能+惠而浦集团订单开拓,持续增长可期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 00:24
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in revenue and performance under the control of Galanz, with a notable rebound expected starting in 2024 [1] - Galanz, as the global leader in microwave ovens, has effectively addressed industry competition through its acquisition of Whirlpool, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and market positioning [2] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing collaboration with Whirlpool Group, leading to increased orders and stable growth projected for 2026 [3] Company Overview - The company has undergone substantial changes in its ownership structure and management, transitioning to full control by Galanz, which has led to improved operational management and financial performance [1][20] - The revenue is expected to recover significantly, with a projected total revenue of 4,455 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1% [6] Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 505 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 150.5% [4] - The gross margin has steadily improved from 13.40% in 2022 to an expected 17.24% in 2025, driven by product structure optimization and enhanced supply chain efficiency [35] - The company has seen a significant reduction in employee numbers, leading to increased revenue per employee, which is expected to reach 1.3266 million yuan by 2024 [3] Market Position - Galanz holds a dominant position in the global microwave oven market with a 47% market share, and its total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 62.8 billion yuan, marking a 12.3% year-on-year growth [2][44] - The collaboration with Whirlpool is expected to enhance the company's order volume, with Whirlpool's contribution to total revenue increasing from 61% in 2023 to 73% in 2024 [3]
农产品(000061):农批龙头价值回归,稳健中兼具成长性
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 12:32
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the agricultural wholesale market, with substantial asset value and a market share of over 10% in China's agricultural wholesale sector. It has an average annual transaction volume exceeding 36 million tons and transaction value over 250 billion yuan [1][13] - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential, with a projected revenue CAGR of 16.07% and a net profit CAGR of 44.18% from 2018 to 2024. The revenue for 2024 is expected to be 5.63 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 2.5% year-on-year [1][14] - The company is expanding its integrated supply chain, focusing on upstream agricultural product standardization and downstream distribution services, which are expected to drive future growth [2][3] Company Overview - The company operates 35 wholesale markets across more than 20 major cities, maintaining a national presence. It has established partnerships with over 440,000 acres of agricultural bases [2][42] - The company has a stable shareholder structure, with Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding 38.67% and the second-largest shareholder, Life Insurance, holding 25.62% [1][32] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 7.68 billion yuan, 8.92 billion yuan, and 9.91 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 415 million yuan, 447 million yuan, and 492 million yuan, indicating steady growth [3][5] - The company’s financial metrics show a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 41.0 in 2023 to 37.4 in 2027, reflecting a potential valuation improvement [5][6] Market Dynamics - The agricultural wholesale market is characterized by strong profitability in mature markets, with over 72% of the company's subsidiaries and joint ventures expected to be profitable in 2024 [2][43] - The company is actively cultivating new markets and enhancing operational efficiency in existing ones, with a focus on leveraging its core market advantages [2][42]
途虎-W(09690):汽车后市场龙头生态化运营+规模化扩张,线上线下协同赋能
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 12:27
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Tuhu (途虎-W) [2][5]. Core Insights - Tuhu has established itself as a leading integrated online and offline automotive service platform in China, with a strong financial performance and a solid growth trajectory [1][2]. - The automotive aftermarket industry is experiencing significant growth due to increasing vehicle ownership and aging vehicle structures, which drives demand for maintenance and repair services [1][2]. - Tuhu is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends, including the rise of electric vehicles, by expanding its service offerings and enhancing its operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - Tuhu achieved a revenue of RMB 13.601 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.8%. The company is projected to reach revenues of RMB 20.664 billion by 2027, maintaining a growth rate of approximately 11.9% annually [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 6.703 billion in 2023, with a significant increase of 413.8% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to grow to RMB 1.055 billion by 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 8.11 in 2023 to RMB 1.28 in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4]. Market Position and Strategy - Tuhu has built a vast service network with 7,205 service stations across China, covering over 300 cities and nearly 1,800 counties, making it a leading independent automotive service brand [13]. - The company utilizes a light-asset franchise model for its offline expansion, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality through standardized processes and strict quality control [2][10]. - Tuhu's online platform has accumulated a large user base of 150 million registered users, leveraging digital tools to improve customer experience and service delivery [13][16]. Industry Outlook - The automotive service market in China is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing number of vehicles and the shift towards electric vehicles, which will create new service demands [1][2][42]. - The DIFM (Do It For Me) service model is the dominant service mode in China, with independent automotive service channels gaining market share due to their cost-effectiveness [42][44].
途虎-W:汽车后市场龙头生态化运营+规模化扩张,线上线下协同赋能-20260128
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 12:24
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Tuhu (09690.HK), as a leading player in the automotive aftermarket, emphasizing its continuous expansion of the integrated online and offline platform [2]. Core Insights - Tuhu has established a strong position in the automotive aftermarket, with a robust growth trajectory in revenue and net profit, alongside improving gross margins and healthy cash flow [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing growth in China's automotive ownership and the aging vehicle structure, which drives demand for maintenance and repair services [1][2]. - Tuhu's strategic focus on electric vehicle services and the expansion of its charging network is expected to capture new growth opportunities in the evolving automotive service landscape [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 13.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 20.7 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.9% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 647 million in 2025 to RMB 1.1 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth rate of 28.5% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.78 in 2025 to RMB 1.28 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. Business Model and Market Position - Tuhu operates an integrated online and offline automotive service platform, leveraging a large user base and high customer retention through digital tools for efficient service delivery [2][10]. - The company has built a vast network of standardized service outlets using a light-asset franchise model, enhancing operational efficiency and market coverage [2][10]. - Tuhu's revenue structure is primarily driven by automotive products and services, with over 90% of revenue coming from individual end customers, indicating a strong focus on consumer needs [30][31].