证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 巨人网络（002558.SZ） 股权激励计划发布，看好《超自然行动组》业绩释放和海外弹性 事件：发布第二期员工持股计划。员工持股计划拟持不超过 317 万股；以 2 月 13 日收盘数据预测算，公司应确认股权激励总费用预计为 6440 万 元，在 26-29 年分别为 3471、2041、843、84 万元，计入相关费用和资 本公积。 点评： 深度绑定核心骨干员工，健全激励机制，利好团队稳定性。本次员工持股 计划面向人员范围为公司（含子公司）中对公司整体业绩和中长期发展具 有重要作用的核心骨干员工，其购买股票的价格为 20.67 元/股。后续将分 3 期解锁（每 12 个月解锁 1/3）；考核要求为个人绩效。 产品端，《《超自然行动组》活跃、商业化双升。核心产品《超自然行动》2 月初 DAU 破 1000 万；26 年春节推进多层商业化，采用"两卡池+一直 购"构架叠加多个礼包，覆盖从 0 氪到重氪全层级玩家，2 月 14 日 IOS 畅销榜冲至第 6 位。具体包括沧海之遗幻梦卡池（薇薇安双形态时装）、 春之声耀世卡池（兰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The number and probability of forced redemptions have been increasing year by year, and the arbitrage opportunities and risks have attracted attention. In the bull market, more convertible bonds trigger and choose forced redemptions, and investors and institutions focus on whether there are arbitrage opportunities and how to time the market [1]. - The valuation adjustment of convertible bonds shows an obvious forward - moving feature. The main pricing process of forced redemption risk is completed at an earlier stage before the announcement, and the valuation compression is basically completed when approaching the announcement [1]. - In 2026, the forced redemption of convertible bonds may be more frequent, and the forced redemption game opportunities will increase. The operation idea of "entering the market close to the announcement and exiting opportunistically after the announcement" is more suitable [3]. Summary by Directory I. Strong Redemption Case Review - From 2018 - 2025, there were 1,178 cases of forced redemption triggers in the market, and the proportion of those finally choosing to implement forced redemptions was about 29.5%. In 2025, the number of forced redemption cases reached 132, and 47.3% of the issuers chose forced redemptions, with the probability hitting a record high [1][9]. - The trend of the stock market dominates the occurrence of convertible bond forced redemption events. Since 2024, the monthly trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen All - A Index has significantly increased, and the number of forced redemptions has risen synchronously. The change in the convertible bond stock structure is closely related to the forced redemption probability. The median remaining term of convertible bonds has been decreasing, and the proportion of old bonds in the market has increased significantly [14]. - In 2026, 190 convertible bonds will mature, and if the stock market remains strong, the number of convertible bonds meeting the forced redemption conditions may increase, and the proportion of forced redemption cases may rise [18]. II. How Does the Valuation of Convertible Bonds Converge Before the Forced Redemption Announcement? 2.1 Typical Convergence Path of Valuation - The identification of forced redemption risk promotes the early compression of the conversion premium rate. The conversion premium rate starts to compress unilaterally from T - 20 and gradually converges to around 0%. The compression mainly occurs in the early stage before the forced redemption announcement. From T - 20 to T - 15, the median conversion premium rate drops from 2.33% to 0.98%, accounting for about 56.7% of the overall compression [19]. 2.2 The Forced Redemption Game Continues to "Involve", and the Valuation Convergence Rhythm Advances - The time rhythm of the forced redemption game shows a forward - moving trend. The compression of the conversion premium rate has advanced to an earlier time window before the announcement. Different stages have different convergence rhythms, and the main compression stage has gradually advanced [23]. 2.3 The Valuation Compression of High - Par Convertible Bonds is More Obvious - High - par convertible bonds have more obvious premium compression. The high - par and high - premium convertible bonds are more likely to experience a rapid decline in the conversion premium rate when the forced redemption condition approaches. At T - 20, the premium rate of high - par convertible bonds is 45.96%, about 54 percentage points higher than that of low - par convertible bonds, and both converge to near 0 at T - 1 [27]. 2.4 Before the Announcement, the Market has Formed a Significant Differentiated Expectation for Convertible Bonds with and without Forced Redemption - Before the announcement, the conversion premium rate of non - forced - redemption convertible bonds remains in the positive premium range, about 4% around T - 1. In contrast, the premium rate of forced - redemption convertible bonds converges to 0. Investors need to be vigilant about the price adjustment risk caused by the change in forced redemption expectations [33][34]. III. Is There Still an Opportunity to Participate After the Forced Redemption Announcement? 3.1 After the Forced Redemption Announcement, the Convertible Bond Price Performance and Its Characteristics: "Rapid Compression, Partial Rebound" - After the forced redemption announcement, the conversion premium rate of convertible bonds quickly compresses and turns negative. In some strong stock market stages, the valuation of individual bonds may rebound from T + 10 to T + 30. The stronger the stock market, the more obvious the rebound feature [36][41]. 3.2 After the Non - Redemption Announcement, the Conversion Premium Rate Gradually Returns to Normal - After the non - redemption announcement, the conversion premium rate of non - redeemed convertible bonds shows obvious repair, rising from about 7% to about 10%, and the market pricing gradually returns to the normal valuation range [46]. 3.3 After the Non - Redemption Announcement, is There a Difference in the Valuation Repair of Convertible Bonds with Different Par Values? - Before the non - forced - redemption announcement, the compression paths of the conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with different par values are similar in the early stage, but they gradually diverge later. After T + 15, the conversion premium rate of high - par convertible bonds is significantly lower than that of low - par convertible bonds [48][49]. 3.4 The Investment Win - Rate of Non - Redeemed Convertible Bonds is Higher - In the forced redemption announcement game, it is better to enter the market close to the announcement and exit opportunistically after the announcement. The game space of non - redeemed convertible bonds is more prominent, and different buy - sell window combinations can obtain positive returns. In the case of a redemption announcement, the short - term trading value is relatively limited [53][54]. IV. In 2026, the Game Opportunities Increase Further, and the Participation Strategy Needs Key Attention 4.1 In 2026, the Forced Redemption of Convertible Bonds May be More Frequent, and the Forced Redemption Game Opportunities Increase - In 2026, the environment for forced redemptions is more mature. Some convertible bonds are more likely to meet the forced redemption conditions, and the issuer's willingness to implement forced redemptions is higher. There are already some convertible bonds approaching the forced redemption trigger conditions, and the forced redemption trigger may enter a concentrated stage [57][58]. 4.2 2026 Forced Redemption Game Trading Window and Operation Suggestions - Based on the 2025 trading window sensitivity analysis, the operation idea of "entering the market close to the announcement and exiting opportunistically after the announcement" is still more suitable in 2026. The appropriate participation interval is T - 3 to T - 1 before the announcement, and the exit strategy around T + 10 after the announcement performs better. Pay attention to high - β stocks and non - redeemed convertible bonds in the valuation repair process [61][63].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 基础化工 PET：关注瓶片涨价，及 rPET 新蓝图 油价上涨向 PET 加速传导，瓶片盈利空间大幅改善。伴随油价中枢上 行以及中东原料供给危机的加剧，市场逐渐开始从交易高中东产能占 比化工品的第一阶段，向交易亚洲炼厂开工率下降的第二阶段过渡。 霍尔木兹海峡原油运输量近 1500 万桶/日，约占全球原油贸易量的 34％。芳烃链以其油头路线低替代性，具有强劲的涨价潜力，目前价 格正顺着石脑油-PX-PTA-PET 产业链加速传导。本周(3.6-3.12)聚酯瓶 片均价 7990 元/吨，环比增长 23%，盈利约 316 元/吨，呈边际改善态势： 原料端：1）PX-PTA：依赖单一油制路线，价格大幅上涨。根据 百川盈孚，本周(3.6-3.12)PTA 华东市场均价 6303 元/吨，环比上涨 17%，但上游 PX 涨幅明显高于 PTA；本周(3.6-3.12)PTA 开工率约 77%，市场供应基本稳定。PTA 依赖单一油制路线，若 PTA 开工率下 行，需关注原料"断供"风险。2）MEG：油制成本上行，煤制和天然 气制有望受益 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 环保 相关研究 双碳入法促转型，循环经济迎价值重估 生态环境法典落地，低碳循环显著受益 1）《中华人民共和国生生态环境法 典》发布，法典将"双碳"目标从政策语言转化为法律义务，实施总量国 强度控制制度。并首次明确了新能源全生命周期的绿色管理责任，全面融 入循环经济理念。推荐关注致力于循环经济的标的惠城环保、格林美等。 2）《中海省城城更新新行实实施案》》发发，目标为到 2030 年基本建立可 持续的城更新新模式，显著提升民居环境品质，具体围绕"好房子、好小 区、好社区、好城区"建设展开。要求推进节能改造、管网升级与生态修 复等案面。政策利好环境修复板块，推荐关注高能环境等龙头标的。 当周碳交易行情：本周（3.09-3.13）全生碳更场综合价格行情为：最高价 82.80 元/吨，最低价 79.00 元/吨，收盘价较上周五下跌 0.02%。本周挂 牌协议交易成交量 5.8 万吨，成交额 473.0 万元；大宗协议交易成交量 211.5 万吨，成交额 16,556.0 万元；本周无单向竞价。本周全生碳排放配 额总成交量 217. ...

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 煤炭开采 地缘博弈&海运费骤升，俄煤出口暂停 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 3 月 13 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 103.14 美元/桶，较上周上涨 10.45 美元/桶（+11.27%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 98.71 美元/桶，较上周上涨 7.81 美元/桶（+8.59%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 20.01 美元/百万英热，较上周 下跌 1.17 美元/百万英热（-5.50%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 49.18 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周下跌 3.04 欧元/兆瓦时（-5.82%）；美国 HH 天然气期货 结算价为 3.09 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.09 美元/百万英热（-2.99%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 124.00 美元/吨，较上 周下降 5.50 美元/吨（-4.25%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 138.00 美元/吨，较上周上涨 4.60 美元/吨（+3.45%）；IPE ...

本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 3 月 13 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 103.14 美元/桶，较上周上涨 10.45 美元/桶（+11.27%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 98.71 美元/桶，较上周上涨 7.81 美元/桶（+8.59%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 20.01 美元/百万英热，较上周 下跌 1.17 美元/百万英热（-5.50%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 49.18 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周下跌 3.04 欧元/兆瓦时（-5.82%）；美国 HH 天然气期货 结算价为 3.09 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.09 美元/百万英热（-2.99%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 124.00 美元/吨，较上 周下降 5.50 美元/吨（-4.25%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 138.00 美元/吨，较上周上涨 4.60 美元/吨（+3.45%）；IPE 南非理查兹湾煤炭期货 结算价 111.10 美元/吨，较上周下跌 1.90 美元/吨（-1.68%）。 近期，受中东地缘局势持续紧张与俄 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 环保 双碳入法促转型，循环经济迎价值重估 生态环境法典落地，低碳循环显著受益 1）《中华人民共和国生生态环境法 典》发布，法典将"双碳"目标从政策语言转化为法律义务，实施总量国 强度控制制度。并首次明确了新能源全生命周期的绿色管理责任，全面融 入循环经济理念。推荐关注致力于循环经济的标的惠城环保、格林美等。 2）《中海省城城更新新行实实施案》》发发，目标为到 2030 年基本建立可 持续的城更新新模式，显著提升民居环境品质，具体围绕"好房子、好小 区、好社区、好城区"建设展开。要求推进节能改造、管网升级与生态修 复等案面。政策利好环境修复板块，推荐关注高能环境等龙头标的。 当周碳交易行情：本周（3.09-3.13）全生碳更场综合价格行情为：最高价 82.80 元/吨，最低价 79.00 元/吨，收盘价较上周五下跌 0.02%。本周挂 牌协议交易成交量 5.8 万吨，成交额 473.0 万元；大宗协议交易成交量 211.5 万吨，成交额 16,556.0 万元；本周无单向竞价。本周全生碳排放配 额总成交量 217.3 万吨， ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 透视"十五五"规划纲要：焦点与路径 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—一文读懂两会热点——20260315 【宏观】透视"十五五"规划纲要：焦点与路径——20260314 【宏观】2 月信贷社融双双超预期的背后——20260313 【金融工程】科创 50 确认日线级别下跌——20260315 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周宏观基本面分数小幅上升—— 20260314 【固定收益】长债短债分化的逻辑与前景——20260315 【固定收益】央行回笼资金宽松，自律升级短债下行——流动性和机构 行为跟踪——20260314 【固定收益】财政节奏加快或带动企业融资改善——20260314 【银行】宽信用节奏平稳，资金活化趋势延续——20260315 【通信】光纤光缆：AI 驱动下的新周期——20260315 【非银金融】行业周报|""十五五"规划：资本场与与险行行业心部署 总结——20260315 【机械设备】26 年 GTC 大会前瞻：物理 agent——20260315 【国防军工】铼：先进航空发动机、燃气 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 行情回顾：本周（3.9-3.15）SW 汽车板块整体-1.90%，板块排名 24/31， 上证指数-0.70%，深证成指+0.76%，沪深 300 指数+0.19%。 乘用车：车企陆续披露年报，板块情绪改善。根据乘联会最新发布，2 月 乘用车批发 151.8 万辆，同环比-14.3%/-23.0%，零售 103.4 万辆，同环 比-25.4%/-33.1%，出口 55.5 万辆，同环比+56.0%/-4.4%。受政策波动 及假期影响，零售数据同比属于历年 2 月波动的中间偏低状态。2 月渠道 库存减少 22 万辆，为后续新车上市做准备。近期蔚来、理想已经发布 2025Q4 的财务数据，销售依旧是影响经营指标的重要因素。考虑包括电 池、存储等成本影响，车企盈利水平及当前销售均处在年内低点，预计随 着新车上市及行业销售节奏回暖，叠加出海贡献，板块边际有望向好。 零部件：技术复用与产业合作同步，新兴赛道高景气。国内外（optimus、 小鹏 iron 等）机器人有望年内陆续进入规模量产；消费端 NOA 继续下沉， robotax ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 03 15 年 月 日 宏观点评 政策半月观—一文读懂两会热点 我们定期对每半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策； 2）地方政策；3）行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（3.2-3.15）综述。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策最大看点无疑是全国两会，大体可分为 4 大焦点：一是"十五五"规划纲要，7 万余字、16 项重大战略任务、 20 项考核指标、109 项重大项目，"十五五"时期经济社会发展路线图 和行动纲领已定，突出新阶段、新形势、新任务，亮点不少；二是《政 府工作报告》，突出体现为"迎难而上、直面问题、务实进取、主线清晰、 重点突出"；三是两会主题记者会、"部长通道"、总书记"下团组"等， 进一步划定重点、解读政策、回应关切，也有不少新提法和增量信息； 四是广东、北京、浙江等地陆续开会学习两会精神并部署抓落实，要求 对标中央决策在稳增长、新质生产力、共同富裕等重点领域继续加力， 部署开展政绩观学习教育，"实干实绩实效"完成各项工作。其他可关 注：3.13 国常会通过《国务院 2026 年重点工作分工方案》、3.12 央行 经济金融专 ...