证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 04 01 年 月 日 顺丰控股（002352.SZ） 25Q4 业绩超预期，拐点已现，成长可期 顺丰控股 25Q4 业绩同比增长 10%，超出市场预期。2025Q4，公司实现 营业收入 830 亿元，同比+7.0%；归母净利 28.1 亿元，同比+10.0%，超 出公司对 25Q4 利润持平的指引。2025 全年，营业收入 3082 亿元，同比 +8.4%；归母净利 111.2 亿元，同比+9.3%。 经营调整见效，25Q4 单季毛利率环比修复、全年最高。25Q4 公司毛利 同比增长 10.3%，毛利率为 14.3%，环比提升 1.8pct，为全年单季最高， 且 25Q4 扣非归母净利较 Q3 环比增长 11.6%。盈利的改善主要由于公司 下半年实行动态调优策略，主动清退低毛利业务，保障高价值业务增速水 平。2025 全年毛利率 13.3%，同比-0.6pct，但费用率改善，全年净利率 提升 0.2pct 至 3.8%，归母净利率 3.6%保持持平。 时效核心基本盘稳固，第二曲线高增。件量方面，25Q4 业务量 45.3 亿件， 同比+18.3 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2026 04 01 年 月 日 顺丰同城（09699.HK） 内外双向发力推动业绩高增，无人物流布局稳健推进 公司发布 2025 年业绩公告。2025 年公司实现营收 229 亿元/同比+45%， 年内利润 2.8 亿元/同比+110%，经调整净利润 4.1 亿元/同比+184%，净 利率 1.2%/同比+0.4pts，经调整净利率 1.8%/同比+0.9pts，费用率 5.3%/ 同比-0.9pts；2H25 营收 127 亿元/同比+43%，年内利润 1.4 亿元/同比 +100%，经调整净利润 2.5 亿元/同比+223%，净利率 1.1%/同比+0.3pts， 经调整净利率 2.0%/同比+1.1pts，费用率 5.3%/同比-0.9pts。报告期内 平台活跃商家 112 万家/同比+72%，活跃消费者 2,606 万人/同比+11%， 活跃骑手约 146 万人/同比+46%。 同城配送及最后一公里业务强韧增长。2H25 同城配送收入 77 亿元/同比 +51%；全年同城配送收入 135 亿元/同比+48%，订单量同比增长超 55%， 系公司 ...

品牌矩阵定位清晰，持续优化产品效率。公司旗下高端女装客群定位与价格带互补，充 分参与市场竞争，短期消费环境波动，不同品牌表现分化。分品牌来看：1）2025 年 Koradior 品牌收入 21.1 亿元，同比-2.2%，毛利率-0.6pct 至 76.4%，期末门店 660 家 （较年初-16 家）；2）NAERSI 品牌收入 16.8 亿元，同比-10.3%，毛利率+0.3pct 至 77.2%，期末门店 499 家（较年初-22 家）；3）NEXY.CO 品牌收入 9.9 亿元，同比- 2.6%，毛利率+0.04pct 至 77.0%，期末门店 219 家（较年初-16 家）；4）La Koradior/Elsewhere/CADIDL/FUUNNY FEELLN 品牌 2025 年收入分别 5.6/3.9/3.7/2.0 亿元，同比分别+10%/-19%/-8%/+19%；毛利率分别同比+0.6/+0.7/+2.0/-1.1pct 至 82.1%/72.7%/76.2%/64.0%。产品方面，公司通过升级卓越商品体系、加大主销款研 发投入及整合主线与副线品牌研发资源，优化产品体验，2025 年公司产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.91 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.9%, with an adjusted net profit of 2.58 billion RMB, up 66.9% [1] - The company has expanded its store network significantly, reaching a total of 13,554 stores by the end of 2025, a net increase of 3,640 stores, which is a 37% year-on-year growth [2] - The single-store performance has been strong, with a total GMV of 32.7 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 46.1% increase year-on-year, and an average daily GMV of 7,800 RMB per store, up 20.0% [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2025 was 33.0%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin improved to 19.9%, up 2.39 percentage points [1] - The company expects revenues of 16.44 billion RMB, 20.01 billion RMB, and 23.25 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 27.3%, 21.7%, and 16.2% [3] - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 3.28 billion RMB, 3.93 billion RMB, and 4.54 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 27.4%, 20.2%, and 15.3% [3] Store Expansion Strategy - The company has adopted a strategy of regional densification and deepening in lower-tier markets, with stores in second-tier and below cities increasing from 80% to 82% of total stores [2] - By the end of 2025, the number of franchisees reached 6,675, with a net increase of 3,640 franchisees and a franchisee attrition rate of 6.6%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2026 04 01 年 月 日 赢家时尚（03709.HK） 业绩符合预期，预计 2026 年继续控费提效 2025 年公司收入 62.9 亿元/归母净利润 4.0 亿元，同比分别-4.6%/-15.3%。1） 2025 年公司收入/净利润分别为 62.9/4.0 亿元，同比分别-4.6%/-15.3%，我们判断业 绩表现符合预期。2）盈利质量方面：2025 年毛利率同比+0.1pct 至 76.6%；销售费用 率同比-0.7pct 至 58.2%；管理费用率同比+0.1pct 至 10.4%；综合以上，2025 年公司 归母净利率同比-0.8pct 至 6.3%。3）公司拟派发股息每股 35 港仙，股利支付率 55%， 股息率（2026/3/31 收盘价计算）为 5.2%。 线下坚持结构升级，电商盈利质量提升。公司渠道体系以直营为主，近年来调整升级渠 道结构。分渠道来看：2025 年直营/加盟/电商收入分别 48.2/2.0/12.7 亿元，同比分别 -7%/-30%/+12%，毛利率分别同比-0.1/-0.7/+3.4pct 至 80.2%/70 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 reached 457.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while adjusted net profit was approximately 39.2 billion yuan, up 43.8% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to deliver 550,000 cars in 2026, with a significant increase in automotive deliveries expected [2] - Xiaomi's AI capabilities are gaining traction, with the launch of new AI models and products that are expected to enhance its ecosystem [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 509.6 billion yuan in 2026, 576.0 billion yuan in 2027, and 623.4 billion yuan in 2028, with adjusted net profits estimated at 34.5 billion yuan, 42.8 billion yuan, and 50.3 billion yuan respectively [4][11] - The company is expected to experience a decline in smartphone gross margin to around 8% in 2026 due to rising storage costs [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 6.8% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% [11]

森马服饰（002563.SZ） 业绩符合预期，高分红具备吸引力 证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2026 04 01 年 月 日 2025 年公司收入同比+3%/归母净利润同比-22%，我们判断业绩符合预期。1）2025 全 年公司收入为 150.9 亿元，同比+3%；归母净利润为 8.9 亿元，同比-22%；扣非归母净利 润为 8.4 亿元，同比-22%。2）盈利质量：2025 年公司毛利率同比+1.3pct 至 45.1%（（我们 判断公司终端折扣管理良好）；销售/管理/财务费用率同比分别+2.4/-0.1/+0.3pct 至 28.1%/4%/-0.6%（（我们据业业务判断销售费用率加主要系直营开店带来相关渠道刚性费费 用加主、线上投流费用加主）；资产减值损失 4.5 亿元（上一年同期 2.9 亿元）；综合以上， 2025 年净利率同比-1.9pct 至 5.8%。3）公司全年拟分红合计 8.08 亿元，股利支付率高达 91%，股息率达 5.5%（2026/3/31 收盘价计算）。 2025Q4 公司收入同比持平/归母净利润同比-7%。1）2025Q4 公司收入为 52.5 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%, with a net profit of 1.31 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [1] - The smart electric control business continues to grow, with a projected sales volume of 7.03 million sets of smart electric control products in 2025, an increase of 35% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively expanding into the robotics industry, establishing joint ventures to focus on key components such as screws and motors for robotic joints [3] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's gross profit margin is projected to be 19.7%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 10.9%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has a total of 571 projects under research, a 33% increase year-on-year, with 605 new designated projects expected to generate an annualized revenue of 9.5 billion yuan, up 45% year-on-year [2] - The company's revenue for 2026 is forecasted to reach 15.62 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 16 [4] Business Development - The company has successfully advanced its smart chassis products, with sufficient orders on hand, including the small-batch delivery of EMB products and the expected mass production of electric control suspension systems in 2026 [3] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Yubei Steering, which is expected to enhance business synergies, with Yubei's projected revenue of 3.2 billion yuan in 2025 [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 530 million yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by a significant reversal of bad debt provisions [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total signed contract amount of 22.3 billion yuan in 2025, indicating stable growth and a solid foundation for future revenue [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand in the coal chemical sector and the green energy transition, with potential projects in biomass gasification and green ammonia expected to contribute to future growth [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 11% for 2025, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 5.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Operating cash flow for the year was 500 million yuan, with a net outflow of 50 million yuan in Q4, indicating some liquidity challenges [2]. - The company anticipates net profits of 560 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 690 million yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4%, 12%, and 11% [5]. Business Segments - Revenue from the chemical segment reached 8.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, while the environmental segment saw a decline of 12% [1]. - The company has made significant strides in overseas markets, with international revenue increasing by 429% year-on-year, contributing to 5% of total revenue [1][3]. - The engineering segment, particularly in coal chemical and green energy, is expected to see accelerated project execution due to favorable government policies and rising oil prices [4].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2026 04 01 年 月 日 固定收益定期 四月：持续修复 三月长债震荡调整，期限利差拉大，信用利差收窄。3 月 10 年和 30 年国 债利率分别累计上升 4.2bps 和 7.9bps 至 1.82%和 2.35%。资金相对保 持平稳，因而期限利差明显拉大。目前30年与1年国债利差高达113.1bps， 其中 3 年以上各期限利差普遍处于 2023 年以来的 80%分位数以上，30 年和 10 年利差 53.5bps 的水平几乎是 2023 年以来最高水平。而信用利 差则显著收窄，除 3 年、5 年二永之外，其余各期限信用债和同期限国开 债利差基本上都是 2023 年以来 20%分位数左右或以内。 目前债市这种分化以及长债偏弱态势是多方面因素综合的结果。对长债来 说，随着物价的回升，市场担忧通胀压力上升推升利率，这在长债方面得 到了更为明显的体现。而短端由于资金持续宽松，因而相对表现平稳。长 债的不稳定又导致各类机构普遍缩短久期，叠加同业存款利率下降后理 财、货基等减少存款配置，增加债券配置，这压低了短端信用利率，形成 当前期限利差拉大，信用利 ...