证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 精锻科技（300258.SZ） 精锻齿轮龙头加速出海，卡位机器人布局新赛道 精锻齿轮行业细分龙头，客户涵盖知名主机厂及 Tier1 供应商。公司主业 为汽车精锻齿轮及其它精密锻件的研发、生产与销售，主要产品包括汽车 差速器半轴齿轮和行星齿轮、汽车变速器结合齿齿轮等，是国内乘用车精 锻齿轮细分行业的龙头企业。公司持续拓展海外及新能源客户，覆盖上汽 大众、吉利汽车等合资及自主品牌，沃尔沃、福特、蔚来等新能源车企， 以及奔驰、宝马等海外知名车企及 Tier1 供应商。未来，公司计划全力推 进泰国工厂建设，以承接北美订单；同时通过摩洛哥分公司覆盖欧洲及中 东市场。 投资建议：公司作为精锻齿轮龙头，持续拓展新产品新客户，我们预计 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 1.53/2.04/2.52 亿 元 ， 同 增 - 4.3%/33.5%/23.5%，当前对应市值 PE 为 49/37/30x。考虑到差速器总成 等新产品处于上量阶段，海外市场加速布局，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 风险提示：行业需求不及预期 ...

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 固定收益点评 原因二：企业出海带动出口增长。今年 1-10 月，资本品出口维持高位， 船舶、通用机械设备拉动出口增长 0.4、0.1 个百分点，反映企业出海带动 出口增长。上市公司境外收入同比与出口同比、中国对外直接投资流量与 出口总额同比也具有一定正相关性。更直接的数据是商务部《对外投资统 计公报》中披露的对外投资带动出口数据。2015-2024 年，对外投资带动 的出口年均复合增速明显高于整体出口的年均复合增速（7.6% VS 5.2%），其占整体出口平均比例达 5.7%、平均拉动整体出口 0.7 个百分 点。分国别对外投资也与分国中间品及资本品别出口具有一定的正相关 性，对各国不同行业投资也对应了对各国出口不同的产品类型增速的差 异。 原因三：外部部分经济体需求保持韧性。受益于欧盟经济温和复苏，欧盟 进口增速回升。今年以来越南 GDP 同比增速持续回升，前三季度 GDP 累 计增速高达 7.85%，越南国家财政预算中的投资金额也不断走高，消费也 保持在 9.27%的高增速水平，带动今年 1-10 月中国对越南出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in AI PCB manufacturing, leveraging significant opportunities from the AI wave and deepening partnerships with major GPU and ASIC clients [1][4]. - The company has achieved technological advancements in HDI and high-layer PCBs, with capabilities to produce 6-stage 24-layer HDI products and ongoing development for next-generation technologies [2]. - The expansion of production capacity is on track, with overseas facilities in Thailand and Vietnam progressing as planned, and domestic projects also advancing [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 37 billion yuan in 2026 and 59.9 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit estimates of 12 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan for the same years respectively [4][6]. - The company expects significant growth rates, with a revenue growth of 87.5% in 2025 and 84% in 2026 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 5.76 yuan in 2025 to 22.68 yuan in 2027 [6]. Production and Client Engagement - The company is enhancing its production capabilities and customer engagement by participating in key projects, allowing for early involvement in client R&D and product development [3]. - The company is focusing on long-term planning with clients, aligning its production and technology strategies with their future needs [3].

Core Insights - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is transitioning from a leading express delivery company to a comprehensive logistics service provider, leveraging its strong control over the entire logistics chain and heavy asset layout to maintain service quality and brand influence [3] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions, totaling over 3.8 billion yuan since 2021, through multi-network integration and operational transformations [3][4] - The "activation operation" strategy has led to a sustained monthly volume growth of over 30% in 2025, although there is still room for profit margin optimization due to prior investments [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - SF Holding is recognized as a direct express delivery leader, with a robust logistics network built on its direct operation model [3] - The company is expected to see supply chain and international business become its second growth curve [3] Cost Management - The integration of multiple networks has enabled resource reuse and cost reduction across the logistics chain, with a cumulative cost reduction of over 3.8 billion yuan since 2021 [3] - Operational changes, including optimization of transfer efficiency and automation, have contributed to ongoing cost improvements [3] Growth Potential - The company anticipates structural efficiency improvements and cost reductions in Q4 2025, with a forecast of stable net profit growth for the year [4] - SF Holding is positioned to benefit from economic recovery, which is expected to enhance its profit elasticity in the medium to long term [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group (09888.HK) with a target price of HKD 147 and USD 151 for BIDU.O [3] Core Insights - Baidu's revenue for Q3 2025 was CNY 31.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. The core revenue was CNY 24.7 billion, down 7.0%, with online marketing services declining by 18.4% to CNY 15.3 billion, while non-online marketing services grew by 20.4% to CNY 9.3 billion [1] - The AI business is showing significant growth, with total revenue nearing CNY 10 billion. The segments include intelligent cloud infrastructure (CNY 4.2 billion, up 33%), AI applications (CNY 2.6 billion, up 6%), and AI-native marketing services (CNY 2.8 billion, up 262%) [2] - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," achieved 3.1 million orders, a 212% increase year-on-year, with 100% of its operational cities in China now offering fully autonomous driving [3] Financial Performance - For 2025, Baidu's projected revenue is CNY 128.3 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 19.5 billion. The revenue growth rates are expected to be -3.6% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 7.3% in 2026 and 7.4% in 2027 [5][16] - The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to be 9.0% for 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 15.6% [1] - The report outlines a decline in online marketing services revenue, with expectations of a continued decrease of 12.5% in 2025, while intelligent cloud and other services are expected to grow significantly [16] Business Segments - Baidu's core business is expected to generate CNY 105.6 billion in revenue by 2025, with online marketing services projected to decline while intelligent cloud services are anticipated to grow [16] - The report highlights that approximately 70% of Baidu's search result pages now include AI-generated content, indicating a strong push towards AI integration in its core services [1] Market Position - Baidu's market capitalization is approximately HKD 304 billion, with a total share count of 2.83 billion shares, of which 97.05% are freely tradable [6] - The report emphasizes Baidu's strategic partnerships and global expansion efforts in the autonomous driving sector, including collaborations with international transport operators [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market continues to decline, primarily due to external volatility [3] - Global equity markets generally fell, with only Vietnam and India showing gains [3] - Commodity prices mostly decreased, and the China-US interest rate spread narrowed [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Economic Indicators - The current Gusheng fundamental high-frequency index is 128.8 points, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1 points [3] - The industrial production high-frequency index remains at 127.5, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2 points [3] - The CPI and PPI month-on-month forecasts are both 0.1% [4] Group 3: Company Insights - Wanchen Group - Wanchen Group, established in 2011, became a key national leader in the edible fungus sector, achieving revenue of 540 million yuan in 2024 [6] - The company expanded into the snack retail sector in 2022, rapidly building a store network through acquisitions, reaching 15,365 stores by June 2025 [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the snack retail segment generated revenue of 36.16 billion yuan, accounting for 98.9% of total revenue, with a net profit margin of 5.3% in Q3 2025 [6] Group 4: Company Insights - Saiwei Era - Saiwei Era is a technology-driven leader in cross-border apparel, leveraging a digital platform to create a multi-brand matrix [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.12 billion, 14.35 billion, and 16.50 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 340 million, 570 million, and 710 million yuan [7] Group 5: Company Insights - Miniso - Miniso reported a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [9] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 767 million yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 17.6% [9] - The company is positioned as a global leader in daily goods retail, expanding rapidly through a light-asset model [9] Group 6: Company Insights - Kuaishou - Kuaishou's Q3 2025 revenue reached 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [11] - The company recorded a total operating profit of 5.3 billion yuan, with a profit margin of approximately 14.9% [11] - E-commerce GMV grew by 15.2% to 385 billion yuan, with AI models enhancing marketing and operational efficiency [14]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 名创优品（09896.HK） 内地同店全年逐季提速，海外运营效率提升 事件：11 月 21 日，公司披露截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日止三个月业绩。3Q25， 公司同店 GMV 实现中个位数增长；实现营收 58.0 亿元/同比+28.2%，经 调整净利润为 7.67 亿元/同比+11.7%；经调经营利润 10.2 亿元/同比 +14.8%，对应经调 OPM 17.6%/同比-2.1pct。 MINISO 国内：3Q25 门店净增 102 家，同店实现高个位数增长。①收 入：3Q25 名创优品品牌内地收入 29.1 亿元/同比+19.3%，内地收入逐季 加速。②开店及同店：3Q25 国内 MINISO 门店净增 102 家至 4407 家， 期内同店 GMV 实现高个位数增长；③展望：25 年 10 月中国内地同店增 长达到低双位数水平，我们预计全年内地有望实现中个位数同店增长。 MINISO 海外：同店持续改善，海外直营业务利润率同比提升。①收入： 3Q25，名创优品品牌海外业务实现收入 23.1 亿元/同比+27. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology [3][6]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The revenue from online marketing services, live streaming, and other services was 20.1 billion, 9.6 billion, and 5.9 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.0%, 2.5%, and 41.3% [1]. - The company's operating profit for the quarter was 5.3 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of approximately 14.9%. The non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.0 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of about 14.0% [1]. - E-commerce GMV grew robustly, increasing by 15.2% year-on-year to 385 billion yuan, with a healthy development in the average buyer structure and active user repurchase frequency [1][2]. - The AI models, such as OneRec and G4RL, have become new drivers for advertising revenue growth, contributing approximately 4%-5% to domestic online advertising revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for Kuaishou from 2025 to 2027 are 141.5 billion, 155.0 billion, and 167.0 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 20.5 billion, 24.8 billion, and 27.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 12% [3][5]. - The adjusted EPS for the same period is projected to be 4.8, 5.8, and 6.5 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 25.6%, 24.2%, and 21.8% respectively [5][12]. - The target price for Kuaishou is set at 94 HKD based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates [3].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 固定收益定期 生产资料价格环比回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 128.8 点（前值为 128.7 点），当周同比增加 6.1 点（前值为增加 6.1 点），同比增幅不变。利率债多空信号下调，信号 因子为 3.9%（前值为 4.1%）。 生产方面，工业生产高频指数为 127.5，前值为 127.5，当周同比增加 5.2 点（前值为增加 5.2 点），同比增幅不变。 总需求方面，商品房销售高频指数为 41.4，前值为 41.5，当周同比下降 6.2 点（前值为下降 6.2 点），同比降幅不变；基建投资高频指数为 122.5， 前值为 122.5，当周同比增加 9.1 点（前值为增加 9.1 点），同比增幅不变； 出口高频指数为 143.6，前值为 143.6，当周同比增加 0.8 点（前值为增加 0.9 点），同比增幅收窄；消费高频指数为 120.7，前值为 120.7，当周同 比增加 3.3 点（前值为增加 3.5 点），同比增幅收窄。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测为 0.1%（（前值 0.1%）；PP ...