证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 28 年 月 日 波司登（03998.HK） 中期业绩稳健，期待旺季销售带动 FY2026 亮眼表现 FY2026H1 公司收入同比+1.4%/归母净利润同比+5.3%。1）公司发布 FY2026H1（截 至 2025/9/30 的 6 个月）业绩公告：主营业务收入/归母净利润分别同比增长 1.4%/5.3%至 89.3/11.9 亿元,宣派中期股息每股普通股 6.3 港仙。2）盈利质量方面：FY2026H1 公司毛利 率+0.1pcts 至 50.0%；销售/管理费用率同比分别+1.7pcts/-1.5pcts 至 27.5%/7.2%，归母 净利率同比+0.5pcts 至 13.3%。 分业务：品牌羽绒服同比+8%（主要系波司登主品牌带动增长），OEM 业务同比-12%。 1、品牌羽绒服业务：FY2026H1 收入同比+8%至 65.7 亿元，加盟增速略快于直营，业务毛 利率同比-2.0pcts 至 59.1%（我们判断主要系渠道结构变化影响）。 2、OEM 业务：FY2026H1-12收入%至同比20.4 亿元，销售占比 23%，毛 ...

Group 1: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) - Alibaba reported total revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026 Q2, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] - The Chinese e-commerce segment generated 132.6 billion yuan in revenue, up 16% year-on-year, while international commerce revenue reached 34.8 billion yuan, growing 10% [4] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue increased by 34% year-on-year to 39.8 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 3.6 billion yuan, a 35% increase [4][5] - Instant retail revenue surged by 60% year-on-year to 22.9 billion yuan, contributing to improved user engagement and customer management revenue [5] - Management indicated that the Capex target of 380 billion yuan over three years may be revised upwards due to high demand for servers [6] Group 2: Dongyangguang (600673.SH) - Dongyangguang is involved in a 100% equity acquisition of Qinhuai Data, with total investment reaching 11.2 billion yuan, of which Dongyangguang contributed 3 billion yuan [2] - The acquisition aims to transition Dongyangguang from a traditional materials supplier to an integrated digital ecosystem service provider focusing on green electricity and computing power [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of 15.7 billion yuan, 24.5 billion yuan, and 31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 27 年 月 日 东阳光（600673.SH） 收购秦淮加速，同时拓展 SST 电源新业务 事件：11 月 26 日，公司发布公告披露其参与的秦淮数据中国 100%股权收购交易 最新进展，截至公告日，各方累计出资 112 亿元，其中东阳光已按份额出资 30 亿 元；东创未来已签署剩余 168 亿元并购贷款协议，将按约定支付，合计 280 亿元 交易价款即将完成交付。本次交易通过"东数一号—东创未来—东数三号"三级架 构实施，东阳光通过参股东数一号（持股≤30%）间接参股秦淮数据中国。 收购数据中心进入资金实质交付阶段。此次收购完成后，公司将成功获取秦淮数 据这一领先的超大规模算力基础设施运营商，其核心资产包括覆盖环首都、长三 角、粤港澳及西部枢纽节点的全国性算力网络，行业顶尖的绿色低碳技术，以及稳 定的头部互联网客户资源。对公司而言，这不仅是快速切入 AI 算力基建赛道的关 键一步，更可依托自身在宜昌、韶关、乌兰察布等地的清洁能源基地，与秦淮数据 的算力设施形成"电算协同"效应，通过低成本绿电供给降低运营成本，并构建 "南中北三核"算力布局 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][6]. Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5%. However, the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 71% to approximately 10.5 billion CNY [1]. - The report highlights the improvement in the user experience (UE) of the instant retail business, which has led to a significant increase in active consumers on the Taobao app and a reduction in losses [2]. - The management anticipates that the current quarter represents a low point for EBITA, with expectations for gradual recovery as investments in instant retail are adjusted and UE improves [2]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth of Alibaba Cloud, with a revenue increase of 34% year-on-year, and the continuous triple-digit growth in AI-related product revenue [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY2026, the projected revenue is 1,053.7 billion CNY, with a non-GAAP net profit of 97.4 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38% [5][13]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for FY2026 and 9% for FY2027, with a long-term outlook of 11% growth by FY2028 [5][13]. - The adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is expected to be 106.7 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 10% [13]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected EPS of 5.1 CNY for FY2026, increasing to 8.9 CNY by FY2028 [5][13].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 量化专题报告 "量价淘金"选股因子系列研究（十五） 高/低位放量事件簇：正负向信号的有机结合 前言：本文为国盛金工《"量价淘金"选股因子系列研究》的第十五篇报告， 也是"事件簇"研究理念的第二次探索。我们的研究目标仍是希望从时序视角 挖掘与截面选股因子不同的 Alpha 信息，对多因子选股策略进行补充。具体 地，本文从"高/低位放量"这一经典技术形态出发，构建有效的事件驱动信 号。 日频数据识别"高/低位放量"不能带来稳定收益：定义日频数据下"高位放 量"、"低位放量"的事件信号，平均来看事件的超额收益在触发对应信号后 20- 25 个交易日左右到达峰值，随后有所下降。利用日频"高位放量"、"低位放 量"信号构建资金通道策略，发现组合的收益波动较大，并不能提供稳定增量。 "高/低位放量"事件簇的规模化生产：借助微观量价信息、从更高频的视角 构建收益更为稳定的"高/低位放量"事件簇。事件簇的构建分为三步：（1） 事件识别：通过观测价格是否处于高/低位、量是否放大，对高/低位以及放量 的分钟进行标记；（2）信号定义：可以采用" ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) as a leading global AI PCB manufacturer, emphasizing its deep engagement with top GPU and ASIC clients [15][16][18] - The company has achieved significant advancements in HDI technology, being one of the first to mass-produce 6-layer 24-layer HDI products and is actively developing next-generation 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [16] - Shenghong Technology is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with ongoing projects in Thailand and Vietnam, and is enhancing its collaboration with major clients to align with their R&D and production schedules [17] Group 2: Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for Shenghong Technology is projected to reach 370 billion and 599 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 120 billion and 197 billion yuan [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing value of PCBs in AI servers, which will further strengthen its competitive position in the market [16][18] Group 3: Industry Context - The report notes that the AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from major players like Google, which has increased its capital expenditure guidance for the year [15] - The demand for advanced PCB technology is rising in line with the growth of AI applications, positioning Shenghong Technology favorably within this expanding market [15][16]

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 精锻科技（300258.SZ） 精锻齿轮龙头加速出海，卡位机器人布局新赛道 精锻齿轮行业细分龙头，客户涵盖知名主机厂及 Tier1 供应商。公司主业 为汽车精锻齿轮及其它精密锻件的研发、生产与销售，主要产品包括汽车 差速器半轴齿轮和行星齿轮、汽车变速器结合齿齿轮等，是国内乘用车精 锻齿轮细分行业的龙头企业。公司持续拓展海外及新能源客户，覆盖上汽 大众、吉利汽车等合资及自主品牌，沃尔沃、福特、蔚来等新能源车企， 以及奔驰、宝马等海外知名车企及 Tier1 供应商。未来，公司计划全力推 进泰国工厂建设，以承接北美订单；同时通过摩洛哥分公司覆盖欧洲及中 东市场。 投资建议：公司作为精锻齿轮龙头，持续拓展新产品新客户，我们预计 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 1.53/2.04/2.52 亿 元 ， 同 增 - 4.3%/33.5%/23.5%，当前对应市值 PE 为 49/37/30x。考虑到差速器总成 等新产品处于上量阶段，海外市场加速布局，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 风险提示：行业需求不及预期 ...

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 固定收益点评 原因二：企业出海带动出口增长。今年 1-10 月，资本品出口维持高位， 船舶、通用机械设备拉动出口增长 0.4、0.1 个百分点，反映企业出海带动 出口增长。上市公司境外收入同比与出口同比、中国对外直接投资流量与 出口总额同比也具有一定正相关性。更直接的数据是商务部《对外投资统 计公报》中披露的对外投资带动出口数据。2015-2024 年，对外投资带动 的出口年均复合增速明显高于整体出口的年均复合增速（7.6% VS 5.2%），其占整体出口平均比例达 5.7%、平均拉动整体出口 0.7 个百分 点。分国别对外投资也与分国中间品及资本品别出口具有一定的正相关 性，对各国不同行业投资也对应了对各国出口不同的产品类型增速的差 异。 原因三：外部部分经济体需求保持韧性。受益于欧盟经济温和复苏，欧盟 进口增速回升。今年以来越南 GDP 同比增速持续回升，前三季度 GDP 累 计增速高达 7.85%，越南国家财政预算中的投资金额也不断走高，消费也 保持在 9.27%的高增速水平，带动今年 1-10 月中国对越南出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in AI PCB manufacturing, leveraging significant opportunities from the AI wave and deepening partnerships with major GPU and ASIC clients [1][4]. - The company has achieved technological advancements in HDI and high-layer PCBs, with capabilities to produce 6-stage 24-layer HDI products and ongoing development for next-generation technologies [2]. - The expansion of production capacity is on track, with overseas facilities in Thailand and Vietnam progressing as planned, and domestic projects also advancing [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 37 billion yuan in 2026 and 59.9 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit estimates of 12 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan for the same years respectively [4][6]. - The company expects significant growth rates, with a revenue growth of 87.5% in 2025 and 84% in 2026 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 5.76 yuan in 2025 to 22.68 yuan in 2027 [6]. Production and Client Engagement - The company is enhancing its production capabilities and customer engagement by participating in key projects, allowing for early involvement in client R&D and product development [3]. - The company is focusing on long-term planning with clients, aligning its production and technology strategies with their future needs [3].