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新天绿色能源:10月发电量显著改善,未来聚焦风电及天然气主业

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.52, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HKD 3.45 [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 15.789 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing an 18.7% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.495 billion, a slight decrease of 0.74% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company's power generation in October 2024 showed significant improvement, with a total output of 1,202.6 GWh, up 21.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by wind power generation [4][9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its profitability through wind power, with plans to maintain an additional installed capacity of 800 MW for 2024 and a target of 1 GW for the following year [4][9]. - The LNG trade volume for the first nine months reached approximately 1.03 million tons, with expectations of achieving profitability in the LNG terminal operations by next year [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue to reach RMB 23.324 billion, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, with net profit projected at RMB 2.329 billion, a 5.5% increase [7][26]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 28% in 2022 to 24% in 2024, while EBITDA margin is projected to decrease from 24% to 21% over the same period [27]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to grow from RMB 79.017 billion in 2023 to RMB 82.070 billion in 2024, with shareholder equity expected to increase from RMB 21.877 billion to RMB 23.707 billion [26][27].