广深铁路：Q3客流增速回落，全年业绩预计仍上行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached 7.1 billion yuan, also up by 4.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 1.21 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year, although the third quarter saw a decline of 13.04% to 297 million yuan [2][6] - Passenger traffic growth slowed in Q3, with a total of 54.19 million passengers sent in the first three quarters, a 20% increase year-on-year. However, Q3 saw a 4% increase in passenger traffic, with the Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity traffic decreasing by 1% [6][4] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 7.7%, 5.7%, and 5.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected to be 1.4 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.64 billion yuan for the same years [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 28.22 billion yuan, 29.82 billion yuan, and 31.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 7.74%, 5.65%, and 5.65% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 32.26% year-on-year, followed by 1.54 billion yuan and 1.636 billion yuan in the subsequent years [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.20 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.23 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] Operational Insights - The company experienced a significant increase in passenger traffic in the first three quarters, but Q3 showed a notable slowdown, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [6][4] - The operational costs and financial expenses increased in Q3, which negatively impacted profitability despite a strong performance in the first half of the year [6][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the renovation of Guangzhou Station and Guangzhou East Station into high-speed rail stations, which will enhance its operational capabilities in the high-speed rail sector [6][4]