基础化工行业深度分析：油价下行叠加需求不足，三季度行业景气低位运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is experiencing low levels of prosperity, with a continued decline in the third quarter of 2024 due to falling oil prices and weak downstream demand [2][8] - The industry saw a slight decrease in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of CNY 1,885.9 billion, down 0.36% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 108.8 billion, down 7.62% year-on-year [2][8] - Despite the overall downturn, 21 out of 33 sub-industries reported profit growth, particularly in dyeing chemicals, nylon, chlor-alkali, rubber additives, and rubber products [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Prosperity and Performance - The basic chemical industry is operating at low prosperity levels, with a further decline in the third quarter of 2024 [2][10] - Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased compared to the previous year, with revenue growth slowing from 1.11% in the first half to -0.36% in the third quarter [8][10] - Among 33 sub-industries, 20 reported revenue growth, while 13 experienced declines, with significant growth in other chemical raw materials and synthetic resins [10][12] 2. Profitability Trends - The overall gross margin for the basic chemical industry was 17.92% in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a slight decline from the previous year [15][18] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.06%, down 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [15][18] - Profitability varied significantly among sub-industries, with some benefiting from cost reductions and demand recovery, while others faced declines due to market pressures [18][19] 3. Financial Indicators - The industry maintained a stable debt-to-asset ratio, with a slight decline in operating cash flow [3][4] - Investment activity in the industry is gradually slowing, which may alleviate future capacity pressures [3][4] - Inventory turnover days decreased slightly, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][4] 4. Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province performed better than the overall industry, with revenue of CNY 57.7 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines, including demand recovery in real estate-related products such as titanium dioxide and polyurethane [4] - Limited downward space for international oil prices and potential profitability from alternative routes like coal chemical and light hydrocarbon chemical are highlighted [4] - The tight supply of phosphate rock in China is expected to support price increases in the phosphate chemical industry [4]