铝行业周报：万亿元化债方案落地，铝价创年内新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price has reached a new high for the year, driven by the implementation of a trillion-yuan debt solution and strong domestic demand, although there are concerns about potential demand weakening in the future [1][14] - The alumina market remains strong, with tight supply conditions continuing to push prices upward, benefiting integrated companies [14] - The report highlights the mixed macroeconomic signals, including increased local government debt limits and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which may introduce uncertainties in the market [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of November 8, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,627.0 per ton, up $24.0 from the previous week, and up $350.0 year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21,690.0 yuan per ton, an increase of 895.0 yuan week-on-week and 2,515.0 yuan year-on-year [21] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21,740.0 yuan per ton, up 1,000.0 yuan from the previous week and 2,540.0 yuan year-on-year [21] 2. Production - As of November 8, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 838,000 tons, down 40 tons week-on-week but up 21,000 tons year-on-year [42] - The weekly production of alumina was 1,632,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week-on-week and 64,000 tons year-on-year [42] 3. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is approximately 43.62 million tons, with some production cuts due to environmental and cost factors [7] - The demand for aluminum in downstream industries is currently declining, with a notable decrease in orders for aluminum profiles [8] - The alumina market remains tight, with prices continuing to rise due to limited supply from bauxite and alumina production [11][14] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [4]