Group 1: Domestic Policy and Debt Management - By 2028, local governments need to reduce hidden debts from CNY 14.3 trillion to CNY 2.3 trillion, with a significant portion being converted to explicit debt[1] - The new local government debt limit is set at CNY 6 trillion, allocated over three years, with CNY 2 trillion each year from 2024 to 2026[4] - The essence of debt conversion is to change high-interest implicit debt into low-interest explicit debt, without eliminating the debt itself[5] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - Transaction volumes in first, second, and third-tier cities have all declined, with third-tier cities nearing seasonal lows for 2023[9] - The listing prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities have dropped again, while second and third-tier cities continue to see price declines[9] Group 3: Government Bonds and Market Liquidity - The National People's Congress plans to increase bond issuance this year, with an expected increase of CNY 1.4 trillion compared to last year's fourth quarter[12] - The upcoming maturity of CNY 1.45 trillion in MLF in November and December may create liquidity pressure, but monetary policy is expected to support the market[14] Group 4: U.S. Economic Outlook Post-Election - Following the U.S. election, there is potential for long positions in U.S. Treasuries as both the dollar and Treasury yields are at relatively high levels[17] - The Federal Reserve's confidence in returning inflation to the 2% target has weakened, while confidence in the labor market has strengthened[20]
宏观周报:如预期又不如预期
Xin Da Qi Huo·2024-11-11 11:39