东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241111

Group 1 - The report highlights the approval of a resolution by the National People's Congress to increase local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts, aligning with the long-term and systematic policy orientation emphasized in the Third Plenary Session [1][16][17] - The plan includes an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits from 2024 to 2026, with an additional 800 billion yuan annually from new special bonds for five years, totaling 12 trillion yuan in incremental funds to alleviate hidden debt pressures [2][17][18] - The report anticipates that the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special local government bonds will likely be completed within the year, supported by the People's Bank of China, which aims to minimize supply shocks in the bond market [3][18] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current leverage ratios for households and enterprises are at historically high levels, making it challenging to further increase investment returns without significant improvements [6][19] - It notes that while real estate policies have led to a recovery in sales, the impact on future investment may be limited due to strict control over new projects [6][19] - The report maintains a view of narrow fluctuations in the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to oscillate between 2.10% and 2.20% [20] Group 3 - The report discusses the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, suggesting that the policy rate may eventually drop to 4%, depending on inflation trends [7][21][24] - It emphasizes that the current economic conditions in the U.S. are stable, with no immediate plans for rate hikes, and that the market's previous expectations for aggressive rate cuts may have been overly optimistic [8][21][24] - The report also highlights the potential for a recovery in the yield curve as recession risks decrease, indicating a more favorable outlook for U.S. Treasury yields [13][26] Group 4 - The report notes that the Chinese small and medium-sized enterprise development index rose by 0.3 points in October, indicating improved business conditions and a positive outlook for the sector [14][15] - It highlights the significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with production and sales increasing by 48% and 49.6% year-on-year in October, respectively [15] - The report mentions that the A-share market's margin trading balance has returned to over 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting increased investor confidence [14]