Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The outcome of the US presidential election and the expectation of further tariff increases favor companies with diversified global supply chains. Additionally, the domestic debt reduction policy is expected to indirectly benefit home appliance consumption. The industry is anticipated to see a turning point in Q4, driven by the "trade-in for new" policy and the impact of the Double Eleven shopping festival [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. US Presidential Election and Domestic Fiscal Policy - The report highlights that the recent US presidential election results, with Trump winning, are likely to lead to increased tariffs on Chinese imports, which could benefit companies with diversified supply chains. The domestic debt reduction policy, approved on November 8, is expected to release more funds for consumer spending, indirectly benefiting the home appliance sector [3][6]. 2. Key Weekly Data Summary 2.1 Home Appliance Sales Growth - Offline sales growth for all home appliance categories continues to improve, while online cumulative growth has narrowed. The "trade-in for new" policy and the Double Eleven promotions have significantly stimulated sales [8]. 2.2 Raw Material Prices - Prices for copper and aluminum have increased year-on-year, while steel and crude oil prices have declined. As of November 8, copper prices are up 15.0% year-on-year, and aluminum prices are up 13.3% [10]. 2.3 Shipping Price Index - The shipping price index for Chinese exports has shown a cumulative increase of 22% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline of 35% [11]. 2.4 Real Estate Sales Data - There is a marginal recovery in real estate sales, with significant increases in second-hand home transactions in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their resilience and market positioning: - White goods are seen as stable, with Midea Group (2024 PE: 13.9x) and Haier Smart Home (14.0x) recommended. - For black goods, TCL Electronics (9.9x) and Hisense Visual (14.0x) are suggested. - In the kitchen appliance sector, which is expected to see a rebound, Boss Electric (14.1x) and Vatti (14.0x) are recommended [3][13][15].
家电行业W45周报:多元布局抗关税扰动,化债利好消费
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-11 12:19