GBIAC(600004) 国联证券·2024-11-11 12:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance relative to the market index by more than 10% [4][10] Core Views - The company's business volume has surpassed 2019 levels, with significant growth in cargo and passenger throughput [6] - The company has achieved strong revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue increasing by 15% YoY to 5.3 billion yuan and net profit surging by 143.7% YoY to 670 million yuan [2][6] - The company's cost control measures have improved financial metrics, with the gross profit margin rising to 27.1% and the expense ratio decreasing by 2.4 percentage points [6] - The company's international business has shown rapid growth, with international passenger throughput increasing by 98.2% YoY [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.3 billion yuan, a 15% YoY increase, with Q3 revenue at 1.84 billion yuan, up 7.2% YoY [2][6] - Net profit for the first three quarters was 670 million yuan, a 143.7% YoY increase, with Q3 net profit at 230 million yuan, up 98.2% YoY [2][6] - The company's aircraft movements, passenger throughput, and cargo throughput all exceeded 2019 levels, with cargo throughput growing by 24.5% compared to 2019 [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 7.34 billion yuan, 8.2 billion yuan, and 8.96 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 14.7%, 11.3%, and 9.2% [6] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 950 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.11 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 115.5%, 26.6%, and -8.1%, respectively [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.40 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.47 yuan [6] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the transportation/airport industry and is strengthening its hub advantage through capacity expansion [4][6] - The company has built the world's largest single-terminal airport and is accelerating the construction of its third-phase expansion project, which is expected to further enhance its scale advantage and consolidate its hub value [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 24.0, with a P/B ratio of 1.2 [7] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024 is forecasted at 6.5, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [7]