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农林牧渔行业周报:消费带动猪价或窄幅反弹,补栏积极看好四季度鸡苗行情
Guotou Securities·2024-11-11 12:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the agricultural sector [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown a weekly increase of 6.04%, outperforming major indices such as the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Composite Index [11][12]. - Short-term supply pressures in pig farming are expected to persist, but a rebound in prices is anticipated due to increased consumption driven by colder weather [17]. - The poultry sector is stable, with expectations for continued favorable conditions in Q4, particularly for chicken seedlings [3][22]. - The aquaculture sector shows stable prices, with potential investment opportunities identified [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural sector increased by 6.04% in the latest trading week, ranking 18th among the Shenwan first-level industries [11]. - The fishing industry performed exceptionally well, with an increase of 18.85% [14]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 17.13 CNY/kg, down 1.27% week-on-week [17]. - The average price of piglets is 530 CNY/head, up 5.58% week-on-week [17]. - The average daily slaughter volume is 153,800 pigs, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [17]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.64 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [22]. - The price of chicken seedlings is 4.17 CNY/chick, up 1.21% week-on-week [22]. - The market for chicken seedlings is expected to see slight price increases due to improved stocking sentiment [3][22]. 2.3 Crop Sector - The average price of corn is 2,236.61 CNY/ton, down 0.33% week-on-week [25]. - The average price of domestic sugar is 6,053.25 CNY/ton, down 2.42% week-on-week [25]. 2.4 Aquaculture - The average price of carp is 18.00 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [29]. - The average price of shrimp is 320.00 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [29]. - The average price of crab is 100.00 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [29]. 3. Industry Events - The USDA is expected to release a supply and demand report that may adjust corn and soybean yield forecasts [33]. - China's soybean imports in October were 8.087 million tons, a decrease of 28.9% month-on-month but an increase of 56.8% year-on-year [33].