化工行业周报：2024年11月第1周

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election victory. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The importance of food security has increased amid global instability, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid, with expectations for sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [5][26] Summary by Relevant Sections Oil and Chemical Product Price Information - As of November 1, 2024, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 427.7 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventory was 211.3 million barrels, up by 400,000 barrels, while distillate inventory rose by 2.9 million barrels to 115.8 million barrels. Propane inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 100.509 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production remained stable at 13.5 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day year-on-year [2][27] Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were liquid chlorine (up 158.2%), vitamin E (up 9.0%), and R134a (up 8.6%). The top three price decreases were butadiene (down 5.7%), scallion oil (down 4.9%), and acetic acid (down 4.2%). Monthly, liquid chlorine saw a staggering increase of 939.3%, while vitamin A dropped by 30.2% [3][28][29] Price Spread Changes - This week, the top three increases in price spreads were for BDO (up 48.9%), carbon black (up 23.6%), and n-butanol (up 21.0%). The largest decreases were for butyl acrylate (down 80.0%), R410a (down 33.3%), and propylene (down 24.8%). Monthly, the largest increase was for styrene (up 827.3%), while R410a saw a significant drop of 500.0% [4][30][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with new petrochemical and new material projects set to launch [5] - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, has entered a growth phase again [5] - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in product demand [5] - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate rock market conditions and potential for increased dividends [5]