CNOOC(600938) 首创证券·2024-11-11 13:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 326.024 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 116.659 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Oil prices remained high, with the average Brent crude oil futures price for the first three quarters of 2024 at 85.03, and 79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The exploration sector saw multiple successes, with the company making 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluating 23 oil and gas structures. New projects such as the Suizhong 36-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields are expected to support future growth [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 182.768 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with capital expenditures of 85.107 billion yuan, up 5.24% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 143.098 billion yuan, 153.975 billion yuan, and 162.355 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.01, 3.24, and 3.42 yuan, and PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.609 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -1.3%. For 2024E, revenue is expected to be 460.573 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 124.090 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -12.6%. For 2024E, net profit is projected at 143.385 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.5% [3] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 is expected to be 209.743 billion yuan, with a steady increase projected for the following years [4] - Capital expenditures for 2023 are estimated at 68.451 billion yuan, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [4] Balance Sheet - Total assets for 2023 are projected at 1,005.598 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [4] - Total liabilities for 2023 are estimated at 337.722 billion yuan, with a slight increase projected for the following years [4]