房地产行业2025年投资策略：消化超量库存的两种路径

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is currently facing a significant inventory issue, with an excess of 500 to 800 million square meters that need to be absorbed. The total inventory stands at 3.52 billion square meters, with land inventory accounting for 2.08 billion square meters, representing 59% of the total [1][3]. - The report outlines two main paths for inventory digestion: supply-side measures, which involve reclaiming existing land, and demand-side measures, which focus on creating new demand through urban village renovations and land storage [1][3]. - The outlook for 2025 presents both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, with sales expected to range from 8.3 trillion yuan (down 14.4%) to 9.1 trillion yuan (down 5.8%) depending on the effectiveness of policies to address inventory [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The real estate market is seeking a bottom, with policies becoming increasingly supportive. The sales of second-hand homes have outperformed new homes, primarily driven by pricing dynamics [1][3]. - The supply and demand for land have both weakened significantly, with residential land supply and transaction areas dropping by 24% and 20% year-on-year, respectively, marking the lowest levels since 2011 [1][3]. Inventory and Demand - The current inventory of 3.52 billion square meters includes 2.08 billion square meters of land, 700 million square meters of unfinished inventory, and 740 million square meters of completed inventory. The overall inventory digestion cycle is approximately 3.5 years [1][3]. - To achieve a more balanced supply-demand situation by 2025, an estimated demand of 1 billion square meters is needed to fill the gap of 500 to 800 million square meters of excess inventory [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach while being open to opportunities, emphasizing the importance of monitoring housing prices. If prices stabilize, companies such as Poly Developments, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land are recommended for investment [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for policy support to continue, providing cyclical trading opportunities within the sector until housing prices stabilize [1][3].