2024年计算机行业三季度基本面与基金持仓复盘：配置景气度率先反转的三个方向

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The computer industry has experienced a prolonged period of low prosperity, with profit margins stabilizing. The overall revenue growth rate for the industry in Q1-Q3 2024 was 5.99%, a slight year-over-year increase of 1.12 percentage points, but the median revenue growth rate fell to 0.26%, marking a new low since Q3 2020 [5][6]. - The report identifies three key areas for investment: the trusted computing industry, vehicle-road-cloud integration, and low-altitude economy, which are expected to benefit from government policies and technological advancements [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry achieved a total revenue of 858.39 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 5.99% [5]. - The overall net profit for the industry was 16.645 billion yuan, a decline of 26.07% year-over-year, marking the lowest level in five years [6][7]. Sub-industry Analysis - The autonomous driving and vehicle-road-cloud integration sectors showed the highest revenue growth, reaching 24.96% [12]. - The industrial software sector saw a significant decline in growth, dropping from 33.59% in Q1 to 12.22% in Q3 [12]. - The government IT sector faced a revenue decline of 20.27%, with a net profit growth rate of -6612.72% due to increased costs [21]. Fund Holdings - The report notes that the proportion of heavy fund holdings in the computer industry has decreased to 2.04%, a new low since Q2 2022, indicating a reduction in the phenomenon of fund clustering [3][12]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall net profit margin for the industry was 1.94%, down 0.84 percentage points year-over-year, but showed a slight improvement from the previous quarter [8]. - Cost management has become a fundamental practice in the industry, with total expense ratios decreasing by 1.07 percentage points year-over-year [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential rebound in industry profitability following a recovery in demand and budget from downstream clients, suggesting that the industry may experience explosive growth once revenue growth turns positive [13].