金融数据速评（2024.10）：化债将至，M2与社融背离会否持续？

Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In October, new credit increased by 500 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion RMB, continuing a trend of reduced growth with a narrowing decline[1] - New loans to households amounted to 160 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 194.6 billion RMB, marking the first increase since February[1] - New corporate medium and long-term loans were only 170 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year decrease of 212.8 billion RMB, continuing a pattern of substantial declines over the past eight months[1] Group 2: Social Financing and M2 Trends - In October, new social financing totaled 1.4 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion RMB, largely due to a high base from the previous year[1] - M2 growth rebounded by 0.7 percentage points to 7.5% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of increase, despite a widening divergence from loan and social financing growth rates[1] - The stock of social financing declined by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to a new low of 7.8%[1] Group 3: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - Government bond financing in October reached 1.05 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion RMB, influenced by last year's high issuance peak[1] - The government is gradually replacing corporate leverage with government leverage, indicating a shift in the debt structure as the debt reduction plan is implemented[1] - The report anticipates a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in December to provide necessary long-term liquidity support, with further rate cuts expected in 2025[1]