Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust growth forecast for Albania at 3.3% in 2024, driven by private consumption, tourism, and construction [6][13][14] Core Insights - Albania's economy has shown resilience with a real GDP growth averaging 4.2% in 2022 and 2023, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies and proximity to the EU [7][9] - Key challenges include a declining population, poor labor quality, and rising fiscal pressures due to climate risks and debt refinancing [7][8] - The medium-term outlook hinges on the recovery of the global economy and the pace of structural reforms, particularly in the private sector [6][8] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Albania's GDP growth is projected at 3.3% for 2024, with private consumption and investment as main drivers [6][13] - The employment rate reached 66.7% at the end of 2023, with a decline in poverty to 21.7% [9][11] - Inflation averaged around 2.7% in Q1 2024, showing a declining trend due to lower import prices and currency appreciation [9][11] Key Conditions and Challenges - The economy's resilience is attributed to strong tourism and remittances from the EU, but challenges include a declining population and low-quality job creation [7][8] - Fiscal space needs to be created through a Medium-Term Revenue Strategy to address rising fiscal pressures [7][8] Recent Developments - In H1 2024, Albania's economy grew by 3.6%, with services and construction leading the growth [9][11] - The current account deficit widened due to increased imports, but net foreign direct investment rose by 8.5% [11][12] Outlook - Growth is expected to remain robust at 3.3% in 2024, with poverty projected to decrease further [13][14] - The primary balance is expected to improve, and public debt is projected to decline in the medium term [14][15]
欧洲和中亚宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2024年年会（英）
Shi Jie Yin Hang·2024-11-11 20:25