巴拿马系统性国家诊断（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Panama has experienced significant economic growth and poverty reduction over the last three decades, with GDP growth averaging 5.8% from 1990 to 2019 and a reduction in the headcount poverty rate from 50.2% to 12.1% during the same period [14][19] - Despite high growth rates, Panama's economic model is facing challenges due to slowing growth, particularly in the construction sector, and a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) [25][32] - The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economy, leading to a contraction of 17.9% in GDP and an increase in unemployment to 18.5% [32][33] - The report emphasizes the need for Panama to transition from a model based on capital and labor accumulation to one focused on improving total factor productivity (TFP) and labor productivity [51][52] Summary by Sections 1. Executive Summary - The SCD Update assesses Panama's development challenges and policy priorities since 2015, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth, deterioration in education and health indicators, and increased awareness of climate vulnerability [13] 1.1. Drivers of Growth and Poverty Reduction - Panama's economic growth has been driven by an outward-looking model centered on the Panama Canal, the Colon Free Trade Zone, and high levels of private and public investment [20][21] - The country has seen a significant increase in private investment, rising from 34.4% of GDP in 2008-2013 to 41.1% in 2014-2019 [20] 1.2. Panama's Slowing Convergence - Economic growth has slowed since the second half of the 2010s, with FDI inflows dropping from 10% of GDP in 2014 to 6% in 2019 [25] - The construction sector's contribution to GDP growth has diminished, indicating a need for greater efficiency in the use of productive factors [25] 2. Growth and Poverty Context - Panama's growth has been pro-poor, with income among households in the bottom 40% growing by 5.0% from 2013 to 2019, but significant inequality persists [46] - The Gini index remains high at 0.509 in 2021, indicating deep territorial, ethnic, and vertical disparities [29] 3. Development Challenges to Promote Sustainable, Inclusive, and Resilient Convergence - The report identifies key challenges including low human capital, inadequate public institutions, and vulnerability to climate change [31][34] - Human capital indicators are low, with a Human Capital Index score of 0.50, indicating that children born today are expected to achieve only 50% of their potential lifetime productivity [52] 4. Policy Priorities and High-Level Outcomes - The report emphasizes the need for policy priorities to include building human capital, increasing innovation and entrepreneurial capacity, ensuring inclusion, and promoting environmental sustainability [36][50] - The SCD Update highlights the importance of addressing economic and social exclusion of vulnerable groups, including indigenous peoples and rural communities [36]